Financial terms, explained from first principles.
60+ entries across markets, macro, options, crypto, quant and behavioral finance - written for people who actually trade.
A
Abandoned baby
Rare three-candle reversal pattern: doji isolated by gaps on both sides. Highest-reliability star pattern variant.
ABC correction
Elliott corrective 3-wave structure: A (impulse against trend), B (retrace against A), C (impulse against trend, often Fibonacci-related to A). The standard corrective form.
ADX (Average Directional Index)
Trend-strength indicator (0-100). >25 = strong trend; <20 = ranging/weak. Doesn't show direction, only strength. Combine with +DI/-DI for directional context.
Alpha
Excess return over a benchmark, after adjusting for risk.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP calculated from a specific event (earnings, IPO, swing low) rather than session start. Identifies institutional cost basis from a notable moment.
Anchoring bias
Tendency to rely heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the anchor) when making subsequent decisions. Common in price targets and entry levels.
ATR
Average True Range - a measure of recent price volatility.
Auto-deleverage (ADL)
Exchange-forced closure of profitable opposite-side positions to absorb cascade losses when insurance fund is depleted. The worst-case scenario for profitable traders.
B
Base vs quote currency
In EUR/USD, EUR is the base (what you're buying) and USD is the quote (what you're paying with). The quote price says how many quote-currency units = 1 base.
Basis trade (crypto)
Long spot + short futures (or perp) to capture the futures premium — earns the basis/funding with no directional exposure. The flagship neutral crypto strategy.
Bat pattern
5-point harmonic with stricter ratios than Gartley. AB = 0.382-0.50 of XA; CD reaches 0.886 of XA. Tighter reversal at D.
Beta
Sensitivity of a security's returns to overall market movement.
BoC (Bank of Canada)
Canada's central bank. Sets overnight target rate at 8 meetings per year. Commodity-cycle sensitive (oil exporter); traditionally moves alongside Fed.
BoE (Bank of England)
UK central bank. Sets Bank Rate at Monetary Policy Committee meetings. Single inflation-target mandate (2% CPI).
BoJ (Bank of Japan)
Japan's central bank. Spent 2016-2024 pinning long-end yields via YCC. Ended NIRP in March 2024, hiking for first time in decades.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility envelope: 20-period moving average ± 2 standard deviations. Bands expand in volatile markets, contract in quiet ones. Classic mean-reversion framework.
Break of structure (BOS)
Price closing beyond a prior swing high (uptrend continuation) or swing low (downtrend continuation). Confirms the existing trend.
Breaker block
An order block that has been broken (price closed through it in the opposite direction). On retest from the other side, can act as a 'breaker' level.
Broadening formation
Reverse triangle: diverging trendlines making higher highs and lower lows. Signals volatility expansion and trend exhaustion.
Butterfly pattern (harmonic)
5-point harmonic where D point EXTENDS beyond X. AB = 0.786 of XA; CD = 1.27-1.618 of XA. Reversal at D after a deeper extension.
Butterfly spread
Three-strike options structure: long-low + short-2x-middle + long-high (calls or puts). Profits if price pins at middle strike. Limited risk, limited reward.
Buy-side / sell-side liquidity
Stops located ABOVE current price = buy-side liquidity (triggers buying when hit). Stops BELOW = sell-side liquidity (triggers selling). SMC terminology for stop pools.
Buyback
A company repurchasing its own shares from the open market.
C
Calmar ratio
Annual return divided by max drawdown. Simple, drawdown-focused alternative to Sharpe. Higher = better risk-adjusted return.
Carry
Income earned from holding a position over time.
Carry trade
Borrowing in a low-yielding currency to invest in a higher-yielding one, pocketing the rate differential.
Carry-positive vs carry-negative pair
A pair where you EARN swap when long (long high-rate, short low-rate) is carry-positive. Reversed = carry-negative.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
Momentum oscillator measuring price deviation from average. Default 20-period. >100 = strong upward momentum; <-100 = strong downward.
Change of character (CHoCH)
Price closing beyond the prior counter-trend swing — signals trend REVERSAL. The first structural signal of a new direction.
Charm
Cross-Greek measuring sensitivity of delta to time decay. As time passes, deltas drift — requiring dealer rebalancing absent any spot or vol moves.
Circuit breaker
A trading halt triggered by extreme price moves to allow markets to absorb information.
Composite operator
Wyckoff's metaphor for the aggregated institutional flow that 'plays' the market. Treats all institutional behavior as if one trader controlling supply and demand.
Conference Board consumer confidence
Monthly US consumer confidence survey from the Conference Board. Complement to Michigan sentiment with different methodology and weights.
Confirmation bias (trading)
Tendency to seek information that confirms existing positions and dismiss information that contradicts them. The most common cognitive bias in trading.
Convexity
The curvature of a bond's price-yield relationship.
Core CPI vs headline CPI
Core excludes food and energy from CPI to remove volatile components. Core is the persistent-inflation signal; headline drives the news cycle.
CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Monthly US inflation report (headline and core). Released mid-month at 8:30am ET. After NFP, the most market-moving scheduled release.
Crab pattern
5-point harmonic with extreme D extension. CD = 1.618 of XA. Reversal at D after the deepest extension of any harmonic pattern.
Cross rate
Any FX pair not involving USD — derived from two USD legs (EUR/GBP = EUR/USD × USD/GBP).
Cross vs isolated margin
Cross-margin: all positions share account balance as margin. Isolated: each position has its own dedicated margin, capped at the allocated amount.
Cup and handle
Bullish continuation pattern: rounded 'cup' bottom followed by a small downward 'handle' consolidation. O'Neil-style breakout setup.
Currency basket
Weighted-average exposure to multiple currencies. DXY is the most-watched basket (USD vs 6 major counterparts).
Currency correlations
Statistical co-movement between FX pairs. Long-USD trades expressed across 5 majors are correlated bets, not 5 independent trades.
Currency pair taxonomy
Three tiers of FX pairs: majors (USD vs G7), minors / crosses (no USD), exotics (USD vs EM).
Currency peg
Fixed exchange rate maintained by a central bank against a reference currency or basket.
Cypher pattern
5-point harmonic with unique BC = 1.13-1.414 EXTENSION beyond B (not retracement). CD = 0.786 of XC. Less common, higher reliability when correctly identified.
D
Dark cloud cover
Two-candle bearish reversal: large green candle, then a red candle opening above the prior high but closing ≥50% into the green body. Bearish but weaker than engulfing.
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow - valuation by discounting projected cash flows to present.
Dealer gamma
The specific gamma POSITION held by options market makers (dealers) — distinct from total open-interest gamma. Most-watched component of GEX analysis.
DeFi
Decentralized Finance - financial applications running on blockchains.
Delta
How much an option's price changes per $1 move in the underlying.
Diamond pattern
Rare reversal pattern shaped like a diamond — broadening formation followed by a contracting formation. Signals trend exhaustion.
Dilution
When new share issuance reduces existing shareholders' ownership percentage.
Direct vs reverse quote
Direct quote: USD is the quote currency (EUR/USD). Reverse quote: USD is the base (USD/JPY). Pip-value math differs between the two.
Dirty float
Officially floating exchange rate, but the central bank intervenes opportunistically to influence the level. Most EM currencies in practice.
Displacement
A strong, fast directional move that 'displaces' prior price structure. Often creates FVGs and confirms institutional flow direction.
Disposition effect
Tendency to sell winners too early (lock in gains) and hold losers too long (avoid realizing losses). Documented by Shefrin and Statman; one of the most robust behavioral findings.
Dividend yield
Annual dividend per share divided by current share price.
Doji
Candlestick with virtually identical open and close — body looks like a horizontal line. Signals indecision and potential reversal.
Donchian channel
Highest high and lowest low over N periods (default 20). Breakout above upper = bullish; below lower = bearish. Foundation of the Turtle Traders system.
Double top / double bottom
Two peaks (top) or two lows (bottom) at roughly the same level, separated by an intervening swing. The 'M' or 'W' chart shape every retail trader learns first.
Drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline in portfolio value.
Durable goods orders
Monthly orders for goods expected to last 3+ years. Volatile (aircraft orders dominate) but leading indicator for business investment.
Duration
Bond price sensitivity to interest rate changes.
DXY
The US Dollar Index — trade-weighted USD against EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF.
E
Earnings surprise
Difference between actual earnings and analyst consensus.
Earnings yield
Earnings per share divided by price - the inverse of P/E.
EBITDA
Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.
ECB (European Central Bank)
Eurozone central bank. Single mandate: price stability (HICP inflation target ~2%). Sets deposit rate, main refi rate, marginal lending rate.
Effort vs result
Wyckoff principle comparing volume (effort) to price movement (result). Divergences signal supply/demand imbalances.
Elliott Wave principle
Theory by Ralph Elliott (1930s): markets move in 5-wave IMPULSE structures and 3-wave CORRECTIVE structures, recursively across all timeframes. The dominant wave-based framework.
Empire State / Philly Fed
Two regional Fed manufacturing surveys (NY, Philadelphia). Released mid-month, providing early signal for ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Engulfing pattern
Two-candle reversal: a small candle followed by a much larger opposite-color candle that 'engulfs' the prior. Bullish or bearish based on direction.
Equal highs / equal lows (EQH / EQL)
Two or more swing highs at the same level (EQH) or swing lows at the same level (EQL). Concentrated stop liquidity — primary sweep targets.
Equity curve
Plot of account equity over time. Shape reveals strategy character (smooth uptrend, choppy, exponential, deteriorating).
Equity risk premium
The excess expected return of equities over the risk-free rate.
ETF
Exchange-Traded Fund - a basket of securities trading like a single stock.
EUR/USD mechanics
The single most traded FX pair (~$1.4T daily). Tightest spreads, deepest book, anchor of every multi-pair FX strategy.
Expectancy
Average profit/loss per trade, in R-multiples. The single number that determines if a strategy is statistically profitable.
F
Factor investing
Building portfolios based on systematic risk premiums (value, momentum, etc.).
Fair value gap (FVG)
Three-candle pattern with an unfilled price gap between the first candle's wick and the third candle's wick. SMC term for a price inefficiency that often acts as a magnet.
Fed funds rate
The overnight rate at which U.S. banks lend reserves to each other.
Federal Reserve (Fed)
US central bank. Dual mandate: maximum employment + price stability. Sets fed funds rate via FOMC. The single most important policy institution in global markets.
Fibonacci extension
Projection levels beyond 100% of a price swing — used to project target zones for impulse waves. Common levels: 127.2%, 161.8%, 261.8%.
Fibonacci retracement
Reference levels derived from Fibonacci ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) applied to price swings. Acts as support/resistance zones.
FIFO (First-In First-Out)
Position-closure rule requiring the oldest opened lots to close first. US FX brokers are FIFO-mandated by NFA.
Fixed fractional position sizing
Risk the same % of current equity on every trade. Default position sizing method for most retail strategies.
Flag and pennant
Brief consolidation patterns after a sharp directional move (the 'flagpole'). Flags are parallel channels; pennants are small triangles. High-conviction continuation signals.
FOMC
The Federal Open Market Committee - the Fed's rate-setting body.
FOMO
Fear Of Missing Out - buying because others are profiting.
Forex forward outright
FX trade with settlement on a specific future date (not spot T+2). Price = spot + forward points reflecting interest-rate differential.
Forex option
Option contract on an FX pair. Premium quoted in pips, strikes set vs forward, common structures include risk reversals and butterflies.
Free Cash Flow
Cash generated after maintenance capex; the actual money the business throws off.
Funding rate
Periodic payment between perpetual-futures longs and shorts that anchors perp price to spot. Positive = longs pay; negative = shorts pay. Cleanest leverage-sentiment gauge in crypto.
FX intervention
Direct central bank or treasury action in the foreign exchange market to influence the currency's level.
FX leverage
Margin-based exposure multiplier in FX, ranging 30:1 (US retail) to 500:1+ (offshore brokers).
FX spread
The bid-ask spread on an FX pair, expressed in pips — the broker's primary revenue and your primary friction cost.
FX swap rate
The interest charged or paid on rolled FX positions overnight — the price of holding a pair past the broker's daily close.
FX volatility cones
Visualisation of historical realised volatility ranges across time horizons — the chart that tells you if current FX vol is cheap or expensive.
G
Gamma
The rate of change of delta - the option's curvature.
Gamma exposure (GEX)
Aggregated gamma position of options dealers across all strikes. Positive GEX = dealers buy dips and sell rips (vol-suppressing); negative GEX = vol-amplifying.
Gap patterns
Empty zones in the chart where price jumped past intermediate levels. Three types: breakaway (start of trend), runaway (mid-trend), exhaustion (end of trend).
Gartley pattern
5-point harmonic pattern (XABCD) with specific Fibonacci ratios. AB retraces 0.618 of XA; BC retraces 0.382-0.886 of AB; CD = 1.272-1.618 of BC. Reversal at D.
GDP
Gross Domestic Product — total US economic output. Released quarterly in three estimates: Advance (1 month after quarter), Preliminary, Final.
GFD (Good For Day)
Order time-in-force: expires at session close. Default for intraday-only orders.
GTC (Good Till Cancelled)
Order time-in-force: stays active until filled or manually cancelled. Default for swing-trade limit orders.
Guidance
Company-issued forecasts of future financial performance.
H
Halving
Bitcoin's pre-programmed 50% reduction in mining rewards every ~4 years.
Hammer / hanging man
Single candle with small body and long lower wick (2x+ the body). Hammer at bottoms = bullish reversal; hanging man at tops = bearish reversal.
Harami
Two-candle pattern: a large candle followed by a small candle whose entire range fits inside the prior body. Inside bar at the candle-body level.
Head and shoulders
Reversal pattern: three peaks with a higher middle (head) between two lower peaks (shoulders). Confirmed on close below the neckline.
Hidden order
Limit order that doesn't display in the public book at all. Sits invisibly waiting for an aggressive market order to find it.
Hindsight bias
'I knew it all along' — the tendency to remember past predictions as more accurate than they were. Distorts strategy review and confidence calibration.
Housing starts
Monthly US new-residential-construction report. Leading indicator for housing market and rate-sensitive economic activity.
I
Iceberg order
Large order split into smaller visible chunks. Shows a small piece in the book; replenishes when the visible piece fills.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
Japanese cloud-based technical system with 5 components: Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou A, Senkou B, Chikou. The 'one-look equilibrium chart' — multi-timeframe trend in one view.
ICT killzone
Specific time windows where ICT theory expects highest-probability institutional moves. London open, NY open, London close, NY close.
Implied volatility
The market's forecast of future volatility, extracted from option prices.
Impulse vs corrective wave
Two wave types in Elliott. Impulse: 5 sub-waves, trends in direction of larger wave. Corrective: 3 sub-waves (ABC), against larger trend.
Inducement
Minor swing high/low that 'induces' retail traders to enter prematurely, providing liquidity that institutional flow then sweeps before the real move.
Inflation
The rate at which prices rise across an economy.
Inside bar
Candle whose entire high-low range fits inside the prior candle's range. Consolidation pattern — breakout direction determines continuation or reversal.
Insurance fund (exchange)
Exchange-maintained pool that absorbs losses when liquidations execute below the bankruptcy price. Buffer between cascade losses and socialised losses on profitable traders.
Inverse vs linear perpetual
Linear perp: collateral and PnL in USDT (stablecoin). Inverse perp: collateral and PnL in the crypto asset itself (BTC for BTC perp). Different risk profiles.
Inverted hammer
Bullish reversal candle: long upper wick, small body near the low, little-to-no lower wick. Same shape as shooting star but in a downtrend context.
IPO
Initial Public Offering - a company's first public sale of stock.
Iron condor
Four-strike options structure combining short put spread and short call spread. Profits if price stays inside a defined range. Standard vol-selling structure.
Island reversal
Group of price bars 'stranded' by gaps on both sides — one gap entering, one gap exiting in the opposite direction. Rare but high-reliability reversal.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Monthly survey-based US manufacturing health indicator. >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction. Released first business day of each month.
ISM Services PMI
Monthly US services-sector health indicator. Services ~70% of US economy. >50 = expansion. Released 3rd business day of each month.
K
Kelly criterion
Position-sizing formula maximizing long-run geometric growth. f* = (W × R - L) / R, where W = win rate, L = loss rate, R = win/loss ratio.
Keltner Channel
Volatility envelope: EMA ± multiplier × ATR. Similar to Bollinger Bands but ATR-based (smoother). Often used inside Bollinger for squeeze detection.
L
Last-look execution
Market-maker right to reject an aggressor order at the quoted price within milliseconds of submission. Asymmetric: accepts when market moves in MM's favor, rejects when it moves against.
Leverage tiers
Maximum leverage decreases as position size increases. A $1k BTC perp position can use 125x; a $10M position is capped at 10-25x. Protects exchange and limits cascade risk.
Leveraged ETF
An ETF that aims to deliver 2x or 3x daily returns of an underlying index.
Limit order
Order to buy at a maximum price (or sell at a minimum). Fills only at the limit price or better. Trades price certainty for execution certainty.
Liquidation / offsetting
Closing an open position via an opposing trade. The standard way out of any leveraged position.
Liquidation cascade
Self-reinforcing chain of forced liquidations: each liquidation moves price further, triggering more liquidations. The structural cause of crypto's flash crashes.
Liquidity sweep
Price briefly wicks beyond a known liquidity pool (swing high/low, round number, prior session extreme) then reverses. Triggers stops, then reverses.
London-NY overlap
The 13:00-17:00 UTC window when both London and New York FX desks are active. Tightest spreads, deepest book, ~70% of daily FX volume.
Loss aversion
Psychological asymmetry: losses are felt ~2x more strongly than equivalent gains. Foundational concept of Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).
Lot size
Standard FX position unit. Standard = 100,000; mini = 10,000; micro = 1,000; nano = 100 base-currency units.
M
MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence - a trend/momentum indicator.
Margin call
Broker warning that account equity has fallen toward margin requirement. If equity reaches the auto-liquidation threshold, the broker force-closes positions.
Mark price vs index price
Index price = volume-weighted spot price across reference exchanges. Mark price = smoothed index price used for liquidations and PnL — protects against flash-crash liquidations.
Market order
Order to buy or sell immediately at the best available price. Fills fastest but exposed to slippage in fast markets.
Marubozu
Candle with little to no wicks on either end — pure body. Strong continuation signal: one side dominated the entire session.
Max drawdown limit
Pre-committed maximum drawdown threshold — past which trading stops to preserve capital and re-assess strategy. The circuit breaker.
Max pain
The strike price at which the most options expire worthless.
Meme stock
A stock whose price is driven primarily by social media-fueled speculation.
Mitigation block
An order block that has been touched at least once. Considered 'partially mitigated' — less reliable for further reactions on subsequent retests.
Moat
A sustainable competitive advantage that protects long-term returns on capital.
Momentum
The empirical fact that winners keep winning over the medium term.
Monte Carlo simulation (trading)
Simulate thousands of possible trade orderings to bound the distribution of outcomes. Reveals tail-risk scenarios a backtest doesn't show.
Morning star / evening star
Three-candle reversal: a strong directional candle, a small-body indecision candle (often doji), then a strong opposite-color candle. Higher reliability than single-candle patterns.
Moving average
Average price over a defined period; smooths noise to show trend.
N
Narrative economics
The idea that contagious stories drive markets, not just fundamentals.
NDF (Non-Deliverable Forward)
Cash-settled FX forward used for currencies where physical delivery is restricted (KRW, INR, TWD, BRL, RUB).
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)
Monthly US employment report. The most market-moving scheduled macro release — moves SPX 1-2% and DXY 0.5-1.5% on first hour.
O
OBV (On-Balance Volume)
Cumulative volume indicator: adds volume on up-days, subtracts on down-days. Rising OBV = accumulation; falling = distribution.
OCO order (One Cancels Other)
Pair of orders where filling one automatically cancels the other. Standard wrapper for take-profit + stop-loss on a single position.
Onshore vs offshore CNY (CNY vs CNH)
Same currency, two markets: CNY trades in mainland China under PBoC tight control; CNH trades offshore (Hong Kong) with broader market pricing. Spread between them is a stress signal.
Open interest
The total number of outstanding option or futures contracts.
Open interest (crypto)
Total outstanding leveraged-derivatives positions across all participants. The dominant flow indicator in crypto. Rising OI + rising price = healthy long buildup; rising OI + falling price = short buildup.
Order block
Last opposite-color candle before a strong directional move — interpreted as the price zone where institutional orders were executed.
Outside bar
Candle whose high is above and low is below the prior candle's range. Larger-than-prior session — strong directional signal in the breakout direction.
Overtrading
Taking more trades than the system requires — either to capture FOMO setups, to recover losses, or because trading feels productive. Erodes edge through cost and bad entries.
P
P/E Ratio
Price divided by earnings per share. The most-quoted valuation metric.
Panic selling
Mass selling driven by fear, often at the worst possible time.
Partial fill
Order fills for less than the requested size because counterparty volume at your price is limited. Remainder stays open or cancels.
PBoC (People's Bank of China)
China's central bank. Sets daily CNY fixings (managed-float regime), Loan Prime Rate (LPR), Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). Less transparent than DM central banks.
PCE / Core PCE
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Released ~30 days after the corresponding month, typically the last Friday.
Pegged currency band
A fixed-rate regime with a tolerance range (e.g., Hong Kong dollar 7.75-7.85 vs USD). Central bank intervenes whenever price approaches the band edge.
Perpetual futures
Futures contract with no expiration date. Price tracked to spot via the funding mechanism. The dominant crypto trading instrument — 80%+ of crypto volume.
Piercing pattern
Two-candle bullish reversal: large red candle, then a green candle opening below the prior low but closing ≥50% into the red body. Mirror of dark cloud cover.
Pin bar
Price-action term for any candle with a long wick (typically ≥2/3 of total range) on one side and small body near the opposite end. Same family as hammer / shooting star.
Pip
Price interest point — the smallest standard unit of price change in an FX pair.
Pip value math
How many dollars a 1-pip move is worth on your position — the core position-sizing input in FX.
Pipette
One tenth of a pip. The 5th decimal on majors (0.00001 on EUR/USD) or the 3rd on yen pairs (0.001 on USD/JPY).
Pivot points
Daily-calculated support/resistance levels based on prior day's high, low, close. Standard intraday reference levels for futures and FX traders.
Position sizing
Deciding how much capital to allocate to a given trade or position.
Position sizing in FX
The systematic method for determining trade size given leverage, account equity, stop distance and pair volatility.
PPI (Producer Price Index)
Monthly US producer-side inflation index. Often leads CPI by 1-2 months. Released day before CPI typically.
Premium / discount zone
Within a defined trading range, prices above 50% = premium (sellers' zone), below 50% = discount (buyers' zone). Used for entry-zone framing.
Price channel
Parallel trendlines connecting swing highs and swing lows in an uptrend or downtrend. Price oscillates within the channel.
Put/call ratio
Ratio of put volume to call volume. >1 = bearish bias in options flow; <0.5 = bullish. Contrarian signal at extremes.
R
R-multiple
Trade outcome expressed as a multiple of initial risk (R). +2R = profit twice the initial risk; -1R = full stop. Universal trade-quality metric.
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Australian central bank. Sets cash rate at monthly Board meetings (first Tuesday of each month). Highly commodity-cycle sensitive.
RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
New Zealand central bank. Sets Official Cash Rate at quarterly Monetary Policy Statements + intermeeting reviews. First country to adopt formal inflation targeting (1989).
Realized vs unrealized PnL
Realized PnL = profit/loss from CLOSED positions. Unrealized PnL = paper profit/loss on OPEN positions. Only realized PnL is bookable; unrealized can evaporate.
Recency bias
Overweighting recent events when forming expectations. Causes traders to chase recent winners and avoid recent losers — usually wrong.
Rectangle / trading range
Horizontal consolidation between parallel support and resistance. Tradeable as range (buy support, sell resistance) until breakout.
Reflexivity
When market prices feed back into the underlying fundamentals they're supposed to reflect.
Requote
Broker rejection of an order at the requested price followed by a new offered price. Common on market-maker brokers in fast markets.
Retail sales
Monthly US retail-spending report. ~30% of GDP. Released ~2 weeks after the corresponding month at 8:30am ET.
Revenge trading
Entering new trades primarily to recover from prior losses rather than because the setup is valid. Specific form of tilt.
Riksbank
Sweden's central bank. Sets policy rate (repo rate) at 5 meetings per year. Often a first-mover on cycle inflections; pioneered negative rates.
Risk of ruin
Probability that account equity falls below a critical threshold (often 50% drawdown or zero) given system stats and position sizing. The math of survival.
Risk reversal
Long call + short put at different strikes — same expiration. Bullish synthetic equivalent to long stock with limited downside. Common FX hedging structure.
Risk-reward ratio (RRR)
Ratio of planned profit target to planned risk. 1:3 = $1 risked for $3 of target. The single most-cited but most-misunderstood trade quality metric.
ROIC
Return on Invested Capital - operating profit relative to capital employed.
Rolldown
Bond returns earned as time passes and the bond rolls down a positively-sloped yield curve.
Rollover / Swap
Daily interest charge or credit applied to FX positions held past the 5pm ET cutoff — the cost (or income) of carry.
Rounded bottom
Long, gradual U-shape bottoming pattern. Slower than a V-bottom but more reliable as a major-low signal.
RSI
Relative Strength Index - momentum oscillator on a 0-100 scale.
S
Shark pattern
5-point harmonic with extreme BC extension and CD = 0.886-1.13 of XC. Newer harmonic (2011). High reliability per Carney.
Sharpe ratio
Risk-adjusted return - excess return per unit of volatility.
Shiller P/E
Cyclically Adjusted P/E - price divided by 10-year average earnings, inflation-adjusted.
Shooting star
Bearish reversal candle: long upper wick, small body near the low, little-to-no lower wick. Appears at trend tops.
Short squeeze
Rapid price rise forcing short sellers to buy back, accelerating the move.
Sign of strength (SOS)
Strong directional move out of a Wyckoff accumulation range, on expanding volume. Confirms accumulation complete and markup beginning.
Sign of weakness (SOW)
Strong directional move out of a Wyckoff distribution range to the downside, on expanding volume. Confirms distribution complete and markdown beginning.
Slippage
Difference between the intended execution price and the actual fill price. Largest hidden cost beyond the spread.
Smart money trap
A false breakout or false structural break designed to trap retail in the wrong direction before the real move develops. Highest-conviction reversal signal.
SNB (Swiss National Bank)
Swiss central bank. Famous for aggressive FX intervention (2011 EUR/CHF floor, 2015 abandonment). Currently runs negative rates and FX-balance-sheet policy.
Sortino ratio
Like Sharpe but only penalizes DOWNSIDE volatility. (Return - risk-free) / downside deviation. Better for asymmetric return distributions.
Spinning top
Candle with a small body and roughly equal wicks above and below. Mild indecision — weaker than doji but similar interpretation.
Spring
False breakdown below an accumulation range low, immediately reversed. The institutional liquidity grab before markup begins.
Stablecoin
A cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to the US dollar.
Stochastic oscillator
Momentum indicator comparing closing price to high-low range over N periods. Scaled 0-100. Overbought >80, oversold <20.
Stop order
Order that becomes a market order once a trigger price is hit. Used for stop-loss exits and breakout entries.
Stop-hunt
Brief price move that triggers a cluster of resting stop orders then immediately reverses. Done deliberately by liquidity providers or by emergent algorithmic herd behavior.
Stop-loss
An automatic order to exit a position at a predefined adverse price.
Sunk-cost trap
Holding losing positions because of money already lost rather than forward-looking analysis. 'I've held this through a 30% drawdown; I'll wait for it to come back.'
SuperTrend
Trend-following indicator combining ATR with mid-point levels. Single line on chart: above = uptrend, below = downtrend. Mechanical trend signal.
Support and resistance
Price levels where buying or selling has historically clustered.
T
T+2 settlement
Standard FX settlement convention: spot trades settle 2 business days after execution. Drives the Wednesday rollover quirk.
Take-profit order
Limit order at a planned profit target. Used as the upper bracket in OCO exits.
Term structure (vol)
Implied volatility across expirations for a single underlying. Contango = longer-dated IV > short-dated; backwardation = inverse, signals imminent vol event.
Theta
Time decay - how much an option loses per day, all else equal.
Three black crows
Three consecutive long red candles, each closing near its low, each opening within the prior body. Strong bearish reversal/continuation.
Three white soldiers
Three consecutive long green candles, each closing near its high, each opening within the prior candle's body. Strong bullish continuation/reversal.
Throwback / pullback
Post-breakout retracement that retests the broken level. Throwback = retest from above (after upside break); pullback = retest from below (after downside break).
Tilt
Emotionally-impaired trading state where the trader makes decisions based on prior outcomes (anger, frustration, FOMO) rather than the trading plan.
Trade journal metrics
Per-trade tracked metrics that reveal system character over time: R-multiple, win rate, payoff, hold time, setup type, time of day, instrument.
Trailing stop
Stop-loss that dynamically follows price in the profit direction, locking in gains while leaving room for normal pullback.
Triangle pattern
Consolidation pattern with converging trendlines. Ascending (flat top, rising bottom), descending (flat bottom, falling top), or symmetrical (both lines converging).
Triangular arbitrage
Risk-free profit from pricing discrepancies across three currency pairs. Closed in milliseconds by HFT — retail can't capture but should understand.
Triple top / triple bottom
Three peaks (top) or three lows (bottom) at roughly the same level, signaling repeated rejection. Stronger than a double but rarer.
TVL
Total Value Locked - the dollar value of assets deposited in a DeFi protocol.
TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price)
Average price over time, equally weighted (no volume weighting). Used as execution benchmark for algorithmic orders distributed evenly over a window.
Tweezer top / tweezer bottom
Two-candle pattern: two consecutive candles with matching highs (tweezer top) or matching lows (tweezer bottom). Indicates strong rejection at a level.
U
Ulcer Index
Drawdown-weighted volatility metric — measures pain by combining depth and duration of drawdowns. Lower is better.
Unemployment claims (initial / continuing)
Weekly US jobless-claims report. Initial = new filings; continuing = ongoing claims. The highest-frequency labor-market indicator.
University of Michigan sentiment
Monthly US consumer sentiment survey. Two releases per month: preliminary (mid-month) and final (end-of-month). Highly watched by Fed for inflation-expectations gauge.
Upthrust
False breakout above a distribution range high, immediately reversed. The institutional supply distribution before markdown begins. Mirror of spring.
USD/JPY mechanics
Reverse-quoted major (USD base, JPY quote). Pips at 0.01. Pip value varies with rate. Carry-trade poster child.
V
Value investing
Buying assets trading below their intrinsic value.
Vanna
Cross-Greek measuring sensitivity of delta to implied volatility. Critical for dealer hedging: vol changes ALSO change delta, requiring additional hedging beyond what spot moves alone imply.
Variance risk premium (VRP)
Spread between implied volatility (option prices) and realized volatility (actual price moves). Historically positive — option sellers earn this premium.
Vega
Sensitivity of an option's price to a 1-percentage-point change in implied volatility.
VIX
The 30-day implied volatility of S&P 500 options. The 'fear gauge.'
Vol smile / skew
Shape of IV across strikes for a single expiration. 'Smile' = both wings elevated (currencies, indices). 'Skew' = one wing elevated (equity index puts).
Vol surface
3D plot of implied volatility across all strikes AND all expirations. Captures the full options-market vol pricing structure. Where vol arbitrage lives.
Volume profile / POC
Volume distribution across price levels (not time). High-Volume Nodes (HVN) act as magnets; Low-Volume Nodes (LVN) act as breakout zones. POC = Point of Control, highest-volume price.
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price)
Volume-weighted average price for the trading session. Institutional benchmark — most institutional execution measured against VWAP.
W
WACC
Weighted Average Cost of Capital - blended cost of debt and equity financing.
Wave degree
Elliott labels waves by degree (Grand Supercycle, Cycle, Primary, Intermediate, Minor, Minute…). Distinguishes time-scale of each wave count.
Wedge pattern
Converging-trendline consolidation that slopes uniformly up or down. Rising wedge = bearish; falling wedge = bullish (counter-intuitive but reliable).
Win rate vs payoff
Tradeoff between fraction of winning trades (win rate) and size of winners vs losers (payoff). High win-rate strategies usually have lower payoff; vice versa.
Wyckoff accumulation
Multi-phase basing process where 'smart money' accumulates a position before a markup phase. Five phases: PS, SC, AR, ST, SOS.
Wyckoff distribution
Multi-phase topping process where 'smart money' distributes a position before a markdown phase. Mirror of accumulation. Phases: PSY, BC, AR, ST, SOW, UTAD.
Wyckoff schematic (5 phases)
Visual framework showing the five phases of accumulation or distribution sequentially. The standard template for identifying Wyckoff structures.