What it means
Durable goods orders measures new orders received by US manufacturers for goods expected to last 3+ years (autos, appliances, aircraft, machinery, defense equipment). Released by Census Bureau monthly. Headline number is volatile because aircraft orders (Boeing) can swing it by 10-30% in a single month. Core durable goods (excluding transportation) is more informative for underlying business investment trends.
Why it matters
Durable goods orders are a leading indicator for business investment, which is a key GDP component. Sustained weakness signals impending capex slowdown. Sustained strength signals expansion in business spending — bullish for industrials, transports, and overall growth.
How to use it
Focus on core durable goods (ex-transportation) for the underlying signal. Headline volatility from aircraft orders is mostly noise. Watch the 3-month moving average rather than individual prints for trend.
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