Every pair below has a live daily brief written by the Rocky desk, a permanent monthly archive, and (for the highest-volume pairs) an evergreen trader guide explaining what moves it, when to trade it, and how it correlates with rates, commodities and equities.

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Trader guides · evergreen

What moves each pair · when to trade · key correlations

17 guides published

DXY

DXY Explained: How the US Dollar Index Moves and What It Signals

DXY measures the US dollar against six currencies. Euro alone is 57.6% of the basket, so EUR/USD largely IS DXY. Real moves come from Fed policy, US growth surprises and global risk flows. Read DXY with the 2-year yield and gold for the full dollar story.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Guide: What Drives the World's Most-Traded Currency Pair

EUR/USD trades ~$1.7 trillion daily, the largest single FX market. Direction is set by the ECB-Fed rate spread (proxied by 2Y bund vs 2Y Treasury). Sub-1.05 is dollar-strong territory; above 1.12 the euro tends to face exporter pushback. Watch London and NY overlap (13:00-16:00 UTC) for 70% of daily range.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Guide: The Global Carry Trade and Yen Intervention Mechanics

USD/JPY is driven by the US-Japan 10Y yield spread and the global carry trade. Above 155 historically draws Ministry of Finance verbal intervention; above 160 has triggered direct yen-buying twice in the modern era (2022 and 2024). The pair is a global risk barometer: USD/JPY higher = risk-on; sudden drops = global de-risking.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Guide: Cable, BoE-Fed Spread and UK Macro Drivers

GBP/USD ('cable') is the world's third-largest FX pair. Direction is set by the BoE-Fed 2Y yield spread, UK CPI surprises and gilt market stress. The 1.20-1.30 range is the modern cycle anchor. Watch London open (07:00 UTC) for the biggest moves.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Guide: The Cleanest China-Demand Proxy in FX

AUD/USD tracks China demand via iron ore (~60% of Australian exports) and base metals. RBA-Fed policy spread sets the macro overlay. Risk-on environments lift the Aussie disproportionately; risk-off episodes drag it harder than other majors. Watch 0.65-0.70 as the modern cycle range.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Guide: Loonie, Oil Correlation and BoC-Fed Differentials

USD/CAD ('loonie') has an inverse correlation with WTI crude (~-0.7). BoC-Fed policy spread sets the macro overlay; oil sets the day-to-day. The 1.30-1.40 range is the modern cycle anchor. Watch US oil inventory data (Wednesday 14:30 UTC) and Canadian jobs (first Friday of each month).

USD/CHF

USD/CHF Guide: Swiss Safe Haven, SNB Intervention and Risk-Off Premium

USD/CHF carries a structural risk-off premium because both currencies bid up during stress, but the Swiss franc bids harder. SNB intervention is the wildcard above CHF strength of 0.95 or below 0.85 against the dollar. EUR/CHF is often the cleaner read on Swiss policy than USD/CHF.

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP Guide: ECB-BoE Spread, Eurozone vs UK Growth and the Cleanest Sterling Read

EUR/GBP is the cleanest single ticker for ECB vs BoE policy divergence because it strips out the dollar. The 0.83-0.90 range is the modern cycle anchor. Use EUR/GBP direction to confirm whether a cable move is sterling-driven or dollar-driven — if both move the same way, it's sterling; if they diverge, it's dollar.

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY Guide: The Risk Barometer Cross of Global FX

EUR/JPY is the textbook risk barometer cross. Long EUR/JPY captures positive carry (ECB rates > BoJ rates historically) plus risk-on appreciation. The pair leads other JPY crosses during risk-on regimes and unwinds violently during carry unwinds. Watch the ECB-BoJ 10Y yield spread as the macro driver.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY Guide: The Beast, The Dragon and Volatile Carry-Trade Mechanics

GBP/JPY combines high carry (BoE rates > BoJ rates) with high volatility, earning nicknames 'the beast' and 'the dragon' for its 150-300 pip daily ranges. The pair is the most aggressive risk-on carry trade in G10 FX. Watch the BoE-BoJ 10Y spread and global risk regime simultaneously.

AUD/JPY

AUD/JPY Guide: The Textbook Carry Trade and Global Risk Barometer

AUD/JPY captures the world's purest carry trade: long Aussie (RBA cash rate 3-4%) funded by yen (BoJ near zero). Direction follows the AU-JP 10Y spread but moves amplify with global risk regime. Sharp drops below the 200-day SMA historically lead equity sell-offs by hours.

USD/MXN

USD/MXN Guide: Banxico Policy, Nearshoring Flows and Peso Liquidity

USD/MXN is the cleanest peso proxy. Banxico's hawkish stance kept rates above 11% through 2023-24, fueling carry inflows. Direction depends on US-Mexico spread, oil exports, remittances and trade-war headlines. Mid-17s to low-19s is the modern cycle range.

USD/CNH

USD/CNH Guide: PBOC Fixings, Capital Flows and the Offshore Yuan

USD/CNH (offshore yuan) trades more freely than onshore CNY but converges via PBOC daily fixing windows. Direction tracks US-China 10Y yield spread, trade balance and capital flows. PBOC tolerates moves within ±2% of fix; bigger moves trigger verbal or hard intervention.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Guide: RBNZ Policy, Dairy Exports and Kiwi Macro Drivers

NZD/USD ('kiwi') tracks the RBNZ-Fed spread, dairy export prices (Global Dairy Trade auctions), and China-demand sentiment. It's the highest-beta G10 major to risk regime — rallies hard in risk-on, drops faster than AUD in risk-off. Cycle range 0.55-0.70 modern.

NZD/JPY

NZD/JPY Guide: Kiwi Carry Trade Mechanics and Risk-Regime Beta

NZD/JPY is the higher-volatility cousin of AUD/JPY. Long kiwi (RBNZ 4-5% historically) funded by yen (BoJ near zero) compounds carry income with NZD's high risk-regime beta. Drops below the 200-day SMA are textbook risk-off signals; rallies above signal sustained risk-on.

USD/ZAR

USD/ZAR Guide: SARB Policy, Gold Exports and EM Liquidity Premium

USD/ZAR is the EM Africa proxy and one of the highest-carry G20 pairs. SARB rates of 7-8% support carry inflows when global risk is benign. Direction depends on DXY, gold/platinum prices, SARB-Fed spread and South Africa-specific risk (load-shedding, fiscal credibility). 17-20 is the modern cycle range.

USD/BRL

USD/BRL Guide: BCB Policy, Iron Ore Exports and Brazilian Real Drivers

USD/BRL is the LATAM heavyweight. BCB Selic rate of 11-13% delivers one of the world's highest carry yields. Direction depends on US-Brazil rate spread, iron ore and soy prices, fiscal narrative and risk regime. 4.80-5.50 is the modern cycle range. Hot Brazilian CPI extends Selic hold/hike cycles.

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