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All glossary
Behavioral

Sunk-cost trap

Holding losing positions because of money already lost rather than forward-looking analysis. 'I've held this through a 30% drawdown; I'll wait for it to come back.'

What it means

The sunk-cost fallacy in trading: continuing to hold a losing position because of the loss already incurred. Logically, the loss is already realized economically — whether you exit or hold, those funds are at risk. The decision SHOULD be based on the forward prospects of the asset, not the prior path. But retail traders consistently double down on losers 'so the average price comes down' or 'to wait for recovery,' destroying capital that could be redeployed.

Why it matters

Sunk-cost thinking is what produces 'bag holders' — traders who hold catastrophically losing positions for years because they can't accept the loss. The fix is psychological: separate the past (sunk costs are gone) from the future (forward analysis is what matters now). The professional version: evaluate every position as if entering today at current price.

How to use it

Daily question on losing positions: 'If I had this cash today, would I buy this asset at current price?' If no, sell. The capital tied up in 'waiting for recovery' has opportunity cost: it can't be deployed in higher-expected-value positions. Sunk-cost holdings produce the largest single category of avoidable retail underperformance.

Take it further

Want a worked example or a deeper dive? Ask Rocky how this concept applies to your specific watchlist or trade idea.

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