What it means
Gross Domestic Product measures total value of all goods and services produced in the US. Reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in three sequential estimates per quarter: Advance estimate (released ~1 month after quarter end), Second/Preliminary estimate (~2 months), Final estimate (~3 months). Each release revises the prior. Reported as quarterly annualized rate (a 3.0% Q2 GDP means 3.0% annualized growth IN that quarter, not 3.0% YoY).
Why it matters
GDP is the broadest measure of US economic activity. Recessions are typically defined by 2+ consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Hot GDP signals economic strength (hawkish for Fed if inflation is also elevated); weak GDP signals slowdown (dovish). The advance estimate is most market-moving because of surprise potential; revisions get less attention but can shift the trend interpretation.
How to use it
Watch the advance estimate within 1 month of quarter end. Compare to consensus and to the GDPNow real-time tracker (Atlanta Fed publishes weekly). GDP is a lagging indicator — by the time the quarterly print appears, the data is 1-4 months old. Higher-frequency indicators (ISM PMI, NFP, retail sales) tell you about current activity; GDP confirms or refutes the prior quarter.
Q2 2024 advance GDP: 2.8% annualized vs consensus 2.0%. Strong upside surprise drove 10-year yields up 6bp, DXY up 0.4%, SPX initially down 0.7% on hawkish Fed implication. Subsequent revision (Q2 second estimate) showed 3.0% — even stronger.
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