Macro framework for trading the news cycle
Rates, inflation, growth, central banks. Macro is the wind behind every cross-asset move; this is the vocabulary you need to read a Fed statement, parse a CPI print, and not get run over by a yield-curve inversion.
BoC (Bank of Canada)
Canada's central bank. Sets overnight target rate at 8 meetings per year. Commodity-cycle sensitive (oil exporter); traditionally moves alongside Fed.
BoE (Bank of England)
UK central bank. Sets Bank Rate at Monetary Policy Committee meetings. Single inflation-target mandate (2% CPI).
BoJ (Bank of Japan)
Japan's central bank. Spent 2016-2024 pinning long-end yields via YCC. Ended NIRP in March 2024, hiking for first time in decades.
Carry
Income earned from holding a position over time.
Carry trade
DeepBorrowing in a low-yielding currency to invest in a higher-yielding one, pocketing the rate differential.
Conference Board consumer confidence
Monthly US consumer confidence survey from the Conference Board. Complement to Michigan sentiment with different methodology and weights.
Convexity
The curvature of a bond's price-yield relationship.
Core CPI vs headline CPI
Core excludes food and energy from CPI to remove volatile components. Core is the persistent-inflation signal; headline drives the news cycle.
CPI (Consumer Price Index)
DeepMonthly US inflation report (headline and core). Released mid-month at 8:30am ET. After NFP, the most market-moving scheduled release.
Currency peg
DeepFixed exchange rate maintained by a central bank against a reference currency or basket.
Durable goods orders
Monthly orders for goods expected to last 3+ years. Volatile (aircraft orders dominate) but leading indicator for business investment.
Duration
Bond price sensitivity to interest rate changes.
ECB (European Central Bank)
Eurozone central bank. Single mandate: price stability (HICP inflation target ~2%). Sets deposit rate, main refi rate, marginal lending rate.
Empire State / Philly Fed
Two regional Fed manufacturing surveys (NY, Philadelphia). Released mid-month, providing early signal for ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Fed funds rate
The overnight rate at which U.S. banks lend reserves to each other.
Federal Reserve (Fed)
DeepUS central bank. Dual mandate: maximum employment + price stability. Sets fed funds rate via FOMC. The single most important policy institution in global markets.
FOMC
DeepThe Federal Open Market Committee - the Fed's rate-setting body.
FX intervention
DeepDirect central bank or treasury action in the foreign exchange market to influence the currency's level.
GDP
Gross Domestic Product — total US economic output. Released quarterly in three estimates: Advance (1 month after quarter), Preliminary, Final.
Housing starts
Monthly US new-residential-construction report. Leading indicator for housing market and rate-sensitive economic activity.
Inflation
The rate at which prices rise across an economy.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Monthly survey-based US manufacturing health indicator. >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction. Released first business day of each month.
ISM Services PMI
Monthly US services-sector health indicator. Services ~70% of US economy. >50 = expansion. Released 3rd business day of each month.
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover)
Monthly US job-openings report. The Fed's favorite labor-tightness gauge. Quits rate especially informative — high quits = strong labor market.
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)
DeepMonthly US employment report. The most market-moving scheduled macro release — moves SPX 1-2% and DXY 0.5-1.5% on first hour.
PBoC (People's Bank of China)
China's central bank. Sets daily CNY fixings (managed-float regime), Loan Prime Rate (LPR), Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). Less transparent than DM central banks.
PCE / Core PCE
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Released ~30 days after the corresponding month, typically the last Friday.
PPI (Producer Price Index)
Monthly US producer-side inflation index. Often leads CPI by 1-2 months. Released day before CPI typically.
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Australian central bank. Sets cash rate at monthly Board meetings (first Tuesday of each month). Highly commodity-cycle sensitive.
RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
New Zealand central bank. Sets Official Cash Rate at quarterly Monetary Policy Statements + intermeeting reviews. First country to adopt formal inflation targeting (1989).
Retail sales
Monthly US retail-spending report. ~30% of GDP. Released ~2 weeks after the corresponding month at 8:30am ET.
Riksbank
Sweden's central bank. Sets policy rate (repo rate) at 5 meetings per year. Often a first-mover on cycle inflections; pioneered negative rates.
Rolldown
Bond returns earned as time passes and the bond rolls down a positively-sloped yield curve.
SNB (Swiss National Bank)
Swiss central bank. Famous for aggressive FX intervention (2011 EUR/CHF floor, 2015 abandonment). Currently runs negative rates and FX-balance-sheet policy.
Unemployment claims (initial / continuing)
Weekly US jobless-claims report. Initial = new filings; continuing = ongoing claims. The highest-frequency labor-market indicator.
University of Michigan sentiment
Monthly US consumer sentiment survey. Two releases per month: preliminary (mid-month) and final (end-of-month). Highly watched by Fed for inflation-expectations gauge.
Yen carry trade
Borrowing in low-yielding yen to buy higher-yielding assets globally.
Yield curve
Plot of bond yields across maturities.