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Part of: Iran Oil Shock

WTI Off 8% From Peak as US-Iran Ceasefire Lifts Hormuz Flows to 7Mb/d

Strait of Hormuz tanker flows recovered to roughly half of pre-conflict volumes, easing the near-term blockade risk that had driven XLE's outperformance. India's diesel rationing is set to unwind, adding a demand-side tailwind that supports further crude normalization.

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Key facts

  • G7 confirms US-Iran interim ceasefire nearing completion as of June 12
  • Hormuz oil flows recovered to 7 million barrels per day, half pre-conflict levels
  • WTI crude off 8% from recent peak on ceasefire optimism
  • Chevron CEO signals openness to Middle East expansion despite residual risks
  • India began diesel rationing, now likely to ease amid oil relief

What's happening

The geopolitical standoff between the United States and Iran is showing tangible signs of de-escalation, with significant implications for energy markets and global growth. G7 officials announced that the two parties are nearing completion of an interim ceasefire agreement; the US military continues to strike Iranian drone formations near the Strait of Hormuz, but these actions now occur against a backdrop of active diplomatic progress rather than open warfare. This shift has already begun to ease one of the most acute supply shocks of the year.

Tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to approximately 7 million barrels per day, representing roughly half of the normal volumes that were stranded during the peak of the conflict. Exports of refined fuels from the Persian Gulf have similarly resumed, providing welcome relief to markets that had priced in a prolonged energy crisis. Oil prices have fallen 8% from recent peaks, and WTI crude has stabilized as the near-term tail risk of a full Hormuz blockade has diminished.

Energy majors such as Chevron and ExxonMobil are signaling openness to deeper Middle East engagement despite the conflict's residual risks. Chevron's CEO stated that the company remains open to expanding its Middle East footprint in the medium to long term. ExxonMobil is actively studying potential acquisition targets, including Australia's Woodside Energy, to strengthen its liquefied natural gas portfolio and hedge against future supply disruptions.

The ceasefire narrative has broad cross-asset implications. Energy importers that had faced severe margin pressure and inflation risks are now repositioning. India, which had ramped up economic defenses including diesel rationing and spending-cut warnings, may begin to unwind those measures. Global equity indices rallied on the news, with S&P 500 futures climbing and broader risk-on sentiment returning. However, sceptics note that an interim deal is not a permanent resolution; renewed escalation remains a tail risk, and prices in crude, coal, and other commodities remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels.

What to watch next

  • 01G7 summit outcome on Iran ceasefire agreement: next week
  • 02Hormuz shipping flows and tanker tracking: daily updates
  • 03Oil and energy equity positioning as deal firms: next 2 weeks
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Iran Oil Shock: Tracking the Middle East Supply Risk Trade

Live coverage of the Iran conflict, Persian Gulf oil supply disruption, OPEC reaction and the cross-asset trades pricing it.