Fed Hold Into Mid-2027 Puts TLT at Risk of 150bp Duration Repricing

EUR/USD edged lower to 1.1499 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1685 resistance holds. Break of 1.1499 will resume the fall from 1.1848 towards 1.1408 support. However, firm break of 1.1685 will argue that fall from 1.1848 has […] The post EUR/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on ActionForex.

GBP/USD failed to break through 1.3300 support last week as sideway trading continued. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.3508 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.3300 will resume the decline from 1.3657 to 1.3158 support next. However, break of 1.3508 will turn bias back […] The post GBP/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on ActionForex.

Iranian finance minister: End of war on all fronts will be announced under interim deal At least $10 billion for Iran to be unlocked in Iran deal Trump says the terms of the Iran deal that leaked out are fake. Upset about drone attacks Iranian Foreign Minister says the memorandum of understanding has never been closer Trump says post from Iranian foreign minister is "very positive" Starmer faces rising pressure as Burnham looms SpaceX opens at $150 per share. VP Vance: A lot of fake information about potential deal to reopen Strait/end Iran nuclear June US prelim Mich consumer sentiment 48.9 vs 46.0 expected Iran will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war level - IRNA Markets: Gold down $3 to $4209 US 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.48% WTI crude oil down $3.36 to $84.35 S&P 500 up 0.5% USD leads, CHF lags Iran and SpaceX headlines competed today and the news on both was relatively positive. The day started with some trouble as Trump lashed out about "dishonorable" leaks of fake contours of the deal, which seemed to favor Iran. The market quickly figured out that Trump wasn't going to blow up the whole deal over it and was pleased later when Iran's foreign minister downplayed it, saying the full text would be released later. Macro trades were relatively light with FX and bonds trading in tight ranges. Oil softened though, with WTI down to $84.35 in another sharp decline. It seems the market is expecting a quick signing ceremony and reopening but the terms of the deal still leave for 30 days to clear the Strait and Iran has an incentive to slow roll it, as nuclear negotiations won't be easy. Stock channels were focused the SpaceX IPO and it went well, though it was still difficult for retail to make money. Those who got allocations at $135 did well as the shares opened at $150 and rose as high as $176.52 before finishing at $161.22. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Traders turned the most optimistic on the US dollar in more than a year as the war in the Middle East supports the currency’s status as a haven.

The UK Independent is reporting that UK PM Starmer is facing growing leadership pressure ahead of next week's Makerfield by-election. Andy Burnham is expected to win the seat and return to Parliament, potentially positioning himself for a Labour leadership challenge. Cabinet instability is increasing, following the resignations of Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns. Some Labour MPs reportedly fear a wave of further resignations if political pressures continue to build. The Makerfield by-election as a potential turning point for the Labour government. A strong victory for Andy Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester, would give him a platform to re-enter Westminster and could energize those within Labour who are unhappy with Starmer's leadership. The comparison being made by some Labour insiders is to the final weeks of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, when a succession of ministerial resignations ultimately forced him from office. While Starmer publicly says he would contest any leadership challenge, the concern is that continued cabinet departures could weaken his authority and make his position increasingly difficult to defend. Burnham remains one of Labour's most recognizable political figures outside Westminster. His record as Mayor of Greater Manchester and his profile during the COVID era have long fueled speculation that he could one day seek the party leadership. The Makerfield contest could provide the opportunity for that speculation to become a reality. The GBPUSD is steady with the pair trading above and below the 200hour MA below the current level at 1.3398 and the 200 day MA above at 1.34168. The current price is trading at 1.3409. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.