ECB Raises Deposit Rate to 3.75%, First Hike Since 2023, with 50bp More Signaled

EUR/USD edged lower to 1.1499 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1685 resistance holds. Break of 1.1499 will resume the fall from 1.1848 towards 1.1408 support. However, firm break of 1.1685 will argue that fall from 1.1848 has […] The post EUR/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on ActionForex.

Iranian finance minister: End of war on all fronts will be announced under interim deal At least $10 billion for Iran to be unlocked in Iran deal Trump says the terms of the Iran deal that leaked out are fake. Upset about drone attacks Iranian Foreign Minister says the memorandum of understanding has never been closer Trump says post from Iranian foreign minister is "very positive" Starmer faces rising pressure as Burnham looms SpaceX opens at $150 per share. VP Vance: A lot of fake information about potential deal to reopen Strait/end Iran nuclear June US prelim Mich consumer sentiment 48.9 vs 46.0 expected Iran will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war level - IRNA Markets: Gold down $3 to $4209 US 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.48% WTI crude oil down $3.36 to $84.35 S&P 500 up 0.5% USD leads, CHF lags Iran and SpaceX headlines competed today and the news on both was relatively positive. The day started with some trouble as Trump lashed out about "dishonorable" leaks of fake contours of the deal, which seemed to favor Iran. The market quickly figured out that Trump wasn't going to blow up the whole deal over it and was pleased later when Iran's foreign minister downplayed it, saying the full text would be released later. Macro trades were relatively light with FX and bonds trading in tight ranges. Oil softened though, with WTI down to $84.35 in another sharp decline. It seems the market is expecting a quick signing ceremony and reopening but the terms of the deal still leave for 30 days to clear the Strait and Iran has an incentive to slow roll it, as nuclear negotiations won't be easy. Stock channels were focused the SpaceX IPO and it went well, though it was still difficult for retail to make money. Those who got allocations at $135 did well as the shares opened at $150 and rose as high as $176.52 before finishing at $161.22. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Euro remains constructive on Friday after previous day’s jump on ECB rate hike (the first in three years). The latest news about potential peace deal in the Middle East also contributes to fresh positive tone, although markets need more evidence before reacting. The pair probes again through initial barriers at 1.1580 zone (10DMA / […] The post EURUSD – Post-ECB Recovery Faces Strong Obstacles En-Route appeared first on ActionForex.

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first, as range trading continues above 1.1499. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1685 resistance holds. Break of 1.4992 will resume the fall from 1.1848 to retest 1.1408 low next. In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on ActionForex.

Headlines: Iran will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war level - IRNA The US-Iran MoU could be signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva - BBG Here is what the US-Iran deal looks set to be like after another TACO moment Iran media says that memorandum of understanding draft still not yet finalised Oil prices plunge after Iran confirms details of the deal with the US The countdown continues ahead of the Wall Street open, all eyes on SpaceX ECB policymaker Nagel says keeping all options open for July meeting ECB's Dolenc says current rate level gives enough flexibility to respond to energy shock Core inflation confirmed to have picked up in Germany during May French inflation accelerates in May as services inflation push up Spanish inflation picks up in May, core prices also continue to nudge higher UK economy sees marginal contraction in April as services sector cools Markets: WTI crude down 3.5% to $84.60 US dollar little changed, keeps steadier Equities stay optimistic, European indices trade over 1% higher S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, Nasdaq futures up 0.5% with eyes on SpaceX debut US 10-year yields down 0.2 bps to 4.46% Gold down 0.2% to $4,204 Bitcoin up 0.4% to $63,631 The main story of the session was that Iran has emerged with key details of its deal with the US. And it is either a case of there going to be another major TACO moment or this deal is going to fall apart before it even begins. The details point to many concessions being offered up by the US with the summarised version here. And if so, it is essentially a reset back to 27 February. Tell me, what was the point of this war again? As the details surfaced, markets are cheering on the headlines but not taking things all too far. As a reminder, there will still be another 60 days of negotiations after this. And besides the point, we're still yet to see how Trump can spin this all into a "win". Oil prices are down with WTI crude lower by 3.5% to $84.60. The low earlier touched $83.20 before Iran ca

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WTI crude is now down over 4% on the day, accelerating a drop after yesterday's dive lower. The drop yesterday was somewhat arrested near the 100-day moving average (red line). But now, we're seeing a firm break below that and could point to further declines in oil prices after the earlier headlines. Of note, we're seeing price action also break out of its triangle/wedge/flag pattern and that's something that could give sellers added momentum in chasing price to the downside. It will mark the first time since January that oil prices drop back below either of its key daily moving averages. So, that's an important momentum shift in terms of how the price bias is trading right now. The next key support line will be the $80 mark on any further drop from hereon. The reaction comes as Iran reveals the details of the deal/memorandum of understanding that it is looking to agree to with the US. At first glance, the details don't look to be too encouraging as it reveals that Iran has called the US to lift sanctions and also lift its naval blockade. Those are two things that Trump has previously said that they simply will not do until Iran themselves keep their promise on nuclear arrangements. But if we're now hiding behind "commitments" to act in the future while moving forward with a deal to negotiate first, then I guess it's just a matter of semantics now isn't it? In essence, Trump has compromised on his previous positions and opened the door for Iran as well. Taking the L is perhaps the best thing Trump can do for his own image back home at this stage honestly. But even if we do know that, expect him to frame it all as a W as always. In the big picture though, it remains to be seen if this deal/memorandum of understanding can hold up for the next 60 days. And during that period, will Iran really let go of its stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz? That will be the more important detail in all of this. This article was written by Justin Low at