WTI Extends Three-Day Rally as Hormuz Closure Probability Reaches 20 to 30 Percent

Trump: The US is in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war Putin: We are ready to make a deal with Ukraine peacefully Ukraine Zelensky to Putin: Enough of war. Ukraine proposes to end the war Fed's Schmid: Biggest risk facing the US economy is now inflation Treas Sec Bessent: "I wish job market had come out today". BOE Bailey: Markets have been orderly but stressed at times. Fed's Daly: Policy is in a good place and we are prepared to respond either way US Initial jobless claims 225K vs 213K estimate. Continuing Claims 1.777M vs 1.780M est. Hezbollah Lebanon leader: We only care about a complete ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal Markets: S&P 500 up 0.4% WTI crude oil down $2.91 to $93.11 Gold up $46 to $4478 US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.48% Bitcoin down $1500 to $63,400 CHF leads, USD lags Late in the day, we're getting more comments from Trump on the situation in Lebanon, as he says "I think progress has been made" and that "I think things will happen over there." The day started with positive comments from him on the deal and that started a big turnaround, that was also helped by a drop in oil prices. Overall, it was another record close for the S&P 500 but the Nasdaq dipped slightly on a big drop in Broadcom shares. However that the index only declined slightly despite a crushing drop in one of the world's largest companies and a big AI beneficiary is inspiring for the bulls. In FX, the dollar was relatively quiet but weaker in line with the more-peaceful talk from Trump. Bonds also pointed in that direction. Overall, economic news was light today and the path of least-resistance was higher in risk assets. The strength in the stock markets was impressive as it's been for the past two months. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines: Trump: The US is in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war Israeli military warns that the fighting in southern Lebanon continues AI drives tech sector to cut jobs by the most since 2023 BOJ reportedly expected to raise interest rates later this month - report RBA governor Bullock: We expect inflation to increase further in the near-term Euro area retail sales fall in April, challenging outlook ahead German construction activity experiences another steep rate of decline in May UK construction output falls at fastest pace for six years in May Swiss inflation holds steadier in May, core estimate remains subdued Markets: WTI crude down nearly 4% to $96.50 US dollar lower across the board European indices mostly higher but US futures down as tech shares drop S&P 500 futures down 0.4%, Nasdaq futures down 1.2% US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.46% Gold up 1.6% to $4,501 Bitcoin down 3.5% to $62,642 Another day, another case of the boy who cried wolf. US president Trump once again reaffirmed that a "deal to end the war" is close and once again markets are falling for it hook, line, and sinker. Oil prices are under pressure with WTI crude down nearly 4% to $92.50 on the day. Meanwhile, the US dollar is dropping across the board on renewed optimism in broader markets. EUR/USD is up 0.4% to 1.1640 with USD/CHF down 0.5% to 0.7875 on the day. The movement in the equities space is arguably the most intriguing though. European indices are holding higher for the most part and so are Dow futures, with the latter up 0.8%. However, there's some ugly selling going on in tech shares and that's something to take notice ahead of the Wall Street open later. Nasdaq futures are down 1.2% and that is leading S&P 500 futures to be down 0.4% as well currently. The declines are led by Broadcomm, whose shares are down ~15% in pre-market. And we're also seeing AMD shares be down ~4% and Micron shares down ~7% in pre-market, with Nvidia also down ~1% for now. The AI

Usually, rising oil prices have generally been a source of support for Canadian Dollar. This week, however, that relationship is breaking down. Despite Brent crude climbing back above $95 per barrel as US-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked, Canadian Dollar has weakened sharply against its US counterpart. The key reason is a new threat from Washington that […] The post USD/CAD Surges on New US Tariff Threats. A Break Above 1.40 Could Change Everything. appeared first on ActionForex.

Swiss Franc has emerged as one of the weakest major currencies this week. As US-Iran negotiations drag on without a clear resolution, markets are steadily pricing out a swift agreement. Brent crude remains well above $90 and is threatening a return to triple-digit territory. While the situation has not escalated into a broader regional conflict, […] The post EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF Gain Breakout Momentum as US-Iran Stalemate Keeps Oil Elevated appeared first on ActionForex.

May ISM services index 54.5 vs 53.8 expected US May ADP employment data +122K vs +117K expected Iran foreign minister: Contact with the US has not been severed but no progress made Iran targeted a US military ship in the Gulf of Oman - report Fed's Beige Book continues to see slight-to-moderate US growth Geopolitical news: China, Iran, NATO, and chip shortage US EIA weekly crude oil inventories -7974K vs -4007K expected Netanyahu: Lebanon has been taken over by Hezbollah Fed's Williams: I'm not that worried about persistent impacts on inflation so far US factory orders for April 4.8% versus 4.6% estimate May US S&P Global services PMI 50.7 vs 50.9 prelim Canada Q1 labour productivity falls 0.5% Markets: Gold down $41 to $4444 US 10-yuear yields up 3.4 bps to 4.49% WTI crude oil up $2.27 to $96.03 S&P 500 down 0.6% Nasdaq Comp down 0.8% USD leads, NZD lags The dollar moves were substantial on Wednesday in a worrisome sign of geopolitical risk as oil rose another 2.5%. The reports of an imminent deal between the US and Iran have dried up and there's a sense we are at a turning point in the war as patience wears thin. In particular focus is USD/JPY as it rose above 160.00 and into the range where Japan will be tempted to intervene. Elsewhere, oil prices chopped around and hit $97 before fading to $94.40 and then rising back to $96.17.The bond market has started to notice rising oil as yields ticked higher. Outside of Iran-driven news, the AI trade showed a bit less resilience than usual. There were some attempts to drag stock markets higher but it was Nvidia that struggled, falling 3.6% in a continuation of yesterday's reversal. We also saw a big swing lower in software stocks, where were a main catalyst in the May rally. The IGV software ETF was down 4.3%. Alphabet shares also fell to the lowest since April in a 0.8% decline in the fourth day of losses; Microsoft was down 3.2%. On the flipside, Meta was up 4.2% on upgrades. The meme-like rally in MRVL after Jensen

Prior was -3327K Gasoline +3364K vs -513K expected Distillates +1502K vs -319K expected Refinery utilization +0.2% vs +0.3% expected API data released late yesterday: Crude -6750K Gasoline -3199K Distillates -214K WTI crude oil was up $1.10 to $94.92 ahead of the report. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines: US president Trump reaffirms that Iran has agreed to not have a nuclear weapon Iran reserves right to defend against any country permitting US attacks EU says latest US tariffs on forced labour grounds are unjustified USD/JPY continues to poke and prod at intervention strike zone BOJ governor Ueda says will continue to raise policy rate if baseline outlook holds ECB policymaker Elderson says prolonged war increases likelihood of second-round effects SNB Chairman Schlegel says medium-term inflation pressure is basically unchanged Eurozone business activity struggles further in May amid surging price pressures UK May final services PMI 49.3 vs 47.9 prelim How likely is a U.S. debt crisis? Markets: WTI crude up 2% to $95.70 European indices lower, DAX down 0.9% while CAC 40 down 0.4% S&P 500 futures down 0.1% USD a little higher, USD/JPY volatility swings after nearing 160 US 10-year yields up 2.8 bps to 4.48% Gold down 0.5% to $4,463 It was a more pensive session as we continue to wait on whether or not the US and Iran will strike a deal this week. But by the look of things, it seems that both sides are still finding it hard to meet in the middle especially on key terms. US president Trump came out to reaffirm that Iran has agreed to not have a nuclear weapon. But as a reminder, this notion of a baseline promise was denied by Tehran previously last week already. Besides that, he also said that the US naval blockade may stay the course until Labour Day. If so, that means it will be another three more months of this with the naval blockade being lifted supposed to be a key condition for Iran in this framework agreement. So, make what you will of that. Markets remain unfazed for the most part despite the mix of headlines. However, oil prices are continuing to push up with WTI crude up 2% to $95.70 on the day. In the equities space, we are seeing a more tepid mood with European indices falling off while US futures are sitting marginally lower on the day. Ge

WTI crude futures have risen nearly 10% in three days as hopes for a quick peace deal fade.