Gold and Real Rates: GLD, Miners and the Inflation Hedge Trade

The Iran war has cut crude and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz by nearly 6 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, a seismic energy shock that has reignited inflation fears and forced US long-bond yields above 5% for the first time since 2007. Energy importers face margin pressure, while producers, defence contractors, and hard asset beneficiaries see valuations reassessed upward.

US inflation data released May 13 came in hotter than expected, with the producer price index rising 6% year-over-year and energy costs spiking, pushing traders to price in prolonged Fed pause. Fed officials including Boston Fed's Collins signaled holding rates for an extended period, pressuring equities and lifting long-bond yields to 5% for the first time since 2007.

Crude oil and refined fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell by nearly 6 million barrels per day (29%) in Q1 2026 following the Iran conflict, creating a structural energy shock that is lifting global inflation and pressuring growth outlooks in energy-importing nations including Turkey and Pakistan.

US producer prices jumped 6% year-over-year in April, the fastest pace since 2022, driven by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since July, forcing investors to re-price rate-cut expectations with Fed now seen on hold longer.

JPMorgan Asset Management launched a second tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, expanding its institutional DeFi footprint and signaling broader Wall Street comfort with blockchain-based treasury and liquidity solutions for institutional clients amid regulatory clarity.

The May 13 producer price index print of 6% year-on-year inflation, fastest since 2022, and rising energy costs from the Iran conflict are pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since July and delaying expectations for Fed rate cuts. Core inflation remains sticky, pressuring real yields and challenging soft-landing narratives.

Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell nearly 30% in Q1 2026 following US-Iran escalation, pushing crude higher and inflation expectations upward. Global central banks now face stagflation risks as oil-importing economies face margin compression and geopolitical risk premiums.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was added to President Trump's last-minute China delegation alongside Tim Cook, Elon Musk, and other Fortune 500 leaders. NVDA surged to a record $5.5 trillion market capitalization, marking first-ever corporate valuation milestone and signaling market relief on AI-China trade tensions.

US wholesale prices surged 6% year-over-year in April, the fastest pace since 2022, sending 10-year Treasury yields to their highest level since July. Core inflation remains sticky, forcing Fed pivot expectations to recalibrate and pressuring risk-asset valuations across equities.

Fervo Energy Co. raised $1.89 billion in an upsized IPO and opened 33% above its offering price, capitalizing on investor hunger for clean energy alternatives amid Iran war-driven supply chain disruption and elevated crude prices.

US wholesale inflation (PPI) rose 6% year-over-year in April, the fastest pace since 2022, driven by surging energy costs. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to its highest since July, signaling that market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been pushed back and stagflation risks are rising.

Fervo Energy raised $1.89B in a upsized IPO and shares opened 33% above offer price on May 13, as the Iran war-driven oil supply shock and rising energy prices propel institutional capital into renewable energy alternatives and infrastructure plays.

US wholesale inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since 2022 in April, with the producer price index up 6% year-over-year. Higher energy prices from the Iran war are pushing inflation expectations higher, forcing the Fed to extend the hold on rates and treasury yields to multi-month highs.

The Iran-Israel conflict has reduced crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz by nearly 30% in Q1 2026, the lowest quarterly level on record. This energy shock is pushing Brent crude above $95, straining global supply chains and forcing central banks to raise inflation forecasts, with consequences for consumer spending and geopolitical risk premiums.

Equities rebounded sharply as institutions stepped in to buy on weakness, particularly in mega-cap tech. SPY and QQQ posted gains on May 13 after Wednesday's PPI-induced selloff, signaling that despite concentration fears and inflation headwinds, large investors are using pullbacks as entry points.

US wholesale inflation (PPI) rose 6% year-over-year in April, the fastest pace since 2022, driven by surging energy prices tied to the Iran conflict. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since July, signaling traders are pricing in a delayed Fed pivot and sticky inflation that could keep rates elevated through 2026.

US producer prices surged 6% year-over-year in April, marking the fastest pace since 2022, as energy costs spike from the Iran conflict. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest since July, signaling extended rate holds and delaying Fed rate-cut expectations.

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell nearly 6 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, the sharpest decline since the Iran conflict began, pushing crude prices higher and triggering margin compression for energy-importing nations. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey and other emerging markets face inflationary headwinds and central bank policy tightening.

US wholesale inflation surged in April to its fastest pace since 2022 with PPI up 6% year-over-year, driven by energy shocks. The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest since July, reaching 5%, as markets reprice expectations for Fed rate cuts and hold duration longer. Energy-driven inflation is pressuring USD and equity valuations.

Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell nearly 30 percent in Q1 2026 as the Iran-Israel conflict disrupted exports, with Saudi Arabia's production sinking to the lowest level since 1990. Brent and WTI crude surged, lifting inflation expectations and pressuring consumer purchasing power.

The Iran-Israel conflict has slashed Persian Gulf oil flows by nearly 6 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, the largest energy supply disruption in years. Saudi Arabia's reported crude production has fallen to its lowest level since 1990, signaling a seismic shift in global energy markets that will keep oil prices elevated and inflation sticky for the foreseeable future.

The Clarity Act is set for a committee vote on May 14, which could grant XRP permanent federal commodity status and unlock a spot XRP ETF pathway. Community members are mobilizing around the vote, and the tokenomics include a 10% monthly escrow release through May, creating dual catalysts for price discovery ahead of the legislative vote.

JPMorgan Asset Management announced its second tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, expanding its Morgan Money suite and signaling institutional confidence in on-chain settlement infrastructure. The launch demonstrates that tokenized finance is moving from niche to mainstream, with tier-one banks deploying capital at scale into blockchain-native liquidity products.

US producer prices climbed 6% year-over-year in April, the fastest pace since 2022, driven by surging energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. The hot PPI data has forced the Federal Reserve to extend its expected pause on rate cuts, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting their highest level since July, pressuring equities and positioning for a longer-than-expected monetary hold.