China Credit Rebound Tops May Forecasts Yet HSCE Trades 15% Below Year-Ago Levels

Iranian finance minister: End of war on all fronts will be announced under interim deal At least $10 billion for Iran to be unlocked in Iran deal Trump says the terms of the Iran deal that leaked out are fake. Upset about drone attacks Iranian Foreign Minister says the memorandum of understanding has never been closer Trump says post from Iranian foreign minister is "very positive" Starmer faces rising pressure as Burnham looms SpaceX opens at $150 per share. VP Vance: A lot of fake information about potential deal to reopen Strait/end Iran nuclear June US prelim Mich consumer sentiment 48.9 vs 46.0 expected Iran will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war level - IRNA Markets: Gold down $3 to $4209 US 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.48% WTI crude oil down $3.36 to $84.35 S&P 500 up 0.5% USD leads, CHF lags Iran and SpaceX headlines competed today and the news on both was relatively positive. The day started with some trouble as Trump lashed out about "dishonorable" leaks of fake contours of the deal, which seemed to favor Iran. The market quickly figured out that Trump wasn't going to blow up the whole deal over it and was pleased later when Iran's foreign minister downplayed it, saying the full text would be released later. Macro trades were relatively light with FX and bonds trading in tight ranges. Oil softened though, with WTI down to $84.35 in another sharp decline. It seems the market is expecting a quick signing ceremony and reopening but the terms of the deal still leave for 30 days to clear the Strait and Iran has an incentive to slow roll it, as nuclear negotiations won't be easy. Stock channels were focused the SpaceX IPO and it went well, though it was still difficult for retail to make money. Those who got allocations at $135 did well as the shares opened at $150 and rose as high as $176.52 before finishing at $161.22. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Dollar is under broad-based pressure today as safe-haven demand unwinds, but the scale of the selloff remains surprisingly modest considering the dramatic move in oil markets. Brent crude has plunged from above $95 just a day ago to below $86, one of the sharpest declines since the Iran conflict began, as investors increasingly price the […] The post Dollar Down But Not Out While Oil’s $10 Collapse Signals Iran Deal Optimism appeared first on ActionForex.

Headlines: Iran will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war level - IRNA The US-Iran MoU could be signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva - BBG Here is what the US-Iran deal looks set to be like after another TACO moment Iran media says that memorandum of understanding draft still not yet finalised Oil prices plunge after Iran confirms details of the deal with the US The countdown continues ahead of the Wall Street open, all eyes on SpaceX ECB policymaker Nagel says keeping all options open for July meeting ECB's Dolenc says current rate level gives enough flexibility to respond to energy shock Core inflation confirmed to have picked up in Germany during May French inflation accelerates in May as services inflation push up Spanish inflation picks up in May, core prices also continue to nudge higher UK economy sees marginal contraction in April as services sector cools Markets: WTI crude down 3.5% to $84.60 US dollar little changed, keeps steadier Equities stay optimistic, European indices trade over 1% higher S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, Nasdaq futures up 0.5% with eyes on SpaceX debut US 10-year yields down 0.2 bps to 4.46% Gold down 0.2% to $4,204 Bitcoin up 0.4% to $63,631 The main story of the session was that Iran has emerged with key details of its deal with the US. And it is either a case of there going to be another major TACO moment or this deal is going to fall apart before it even begins. The details point to many concessions being offered up by the US with the summarised version here. And if so, it is essentially a reset back to 27 February. Tell me, what was the point of this war again? As the details surfaced, markets are cheering on the headlines but not taking things all too far. As a reminder, there will still be another 60 days of negotiations after this. And besides the point, we're still yet to see how Trump can spin this all into a "win". Oil prices are down with WTI crude lower by 3.5% to $84.60. The low earlier touched $83.20 before Iran ca

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude fell further on Friday on reports that a potential deal would lift oil sanctions on Iran.

Oil prices extended their sharp decline on today as markets grew increasingly confident that a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations could eventually restore normal energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slipped back into the $86-87 region, with the break below the psychologically important $90 level reinforcing the view that traders are beginning to […] The post Oil Collapses on Hormuz Optimism, EUR/CAD Rally May Be Just Getting Started appeared first on ActionForex.

WTI crude is now down over 4% on the day, accelerating a drop after yesterday's dive lower. The drop yesterday was somewhat arrested near the 100-day moving average (red line). But now, we're seeing a firm break below that and could point to further declines in oil prices after the earlier headlines. Of note, we're seeing price action also break out of its triangle/wedge/flag pattern and that's something that could give sellers added momentum in chasing price to the downside. It will mark the first time since January that oil prices drop back below either of its key daily moving averages. So, that's an important momentum shift in terms of how the price bias is trading right now. The next key support line will be the $80 mark on any further drop from hereon. The reaction comes as Iran reveals the details of the deal/memorandum of understanding that it is looking to agree to with the US. At first glance, the details don't look to be too encouraging as it reveals that Iran has called the US to lift sanctions and also lift its naval blockade. Those are two things that Trump has previously said that they simply will not do until Iran themselves keep their promise on nuclear arrangements. But if we're now hiding behind "commitments" to act in the future while moving forward with a deal to negotiate first, then I guess it's just a matter of semantics now isn't it? In essence, Trump has compromised on his previous positions and opened the door for Iran as well. Taking the L is perhaps the best thing Trump can do for his own image back home at this stage honestly. But even if we do know that, expect him to frame it all as a W as always. In the big picture though, it remains to be seen if this deal/memorandum of understanding can hold up for the next 60 days. And during that period, will Iran really let go of its stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz? That will be the more important detail in all of this. This article was written by Justin Low at

So, do we have a deal or no deal? Or maybe a little bit of both? That is the question that needs answering as markets look to the weekend. For now, markets are reacting kindly in taking to Trump's latest boy who cried wolf act. Here's a quick catchup to the happenings from yesterday: Trump threatens to hit Iran hard "at some point" and take over Kharg Island Trump then cancels the attacks and says that a deal is more or less done now In his words: "Final points have been approved by all parties" and the signing will be announced "shortly" Israeli sources said Netanyahu was surprised by Trump's announcement Iran media claims that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not agreed to the US proposal Iran reaffirms that Strait of Hormuz remains closed once again US shoots down two Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz Iran military vows "decisive, regret-inducing" response to US attack That makes it nearly 40 times now that Trump has implied that a deal with Iran is "very close" or something with similar phrasing. So, is this time really different? Only time will tell. Again, I don't doubt that the US and Iran are close to achieving some form of compromise. But at the same time, it is best to be reminded that nothing can be agreed until everything is agreed upon. And even then, this deal will just represent a framework agreement and a baseline for both sides to start working on nuclear arrangements over the next 60 days. It could all still fall apart during this period. So, it is not to say that the conflict will be effectively over once a deal is signed. More importantly, it doesn't mean the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and return immediately to its pre-war state. For now though, markets are taking in the calm and choosing to keep the faith in Trump's messaging. US stocks staged a strong rally yesterday as oil prices and bond yields fell off hard. Tech shares led the way with the Nasdaq jumping by 2.5% as the SpaceX IPO price is confirmed for $135 per share. Pub