NVDA Q2 Guide of $91B Beats Consensus by $5B Despite Full China Revenue Exclusion

NVIDIA's first-quarter earnings delivered the kind of blowout results that should have sent the stock soaring, but instead triggered a curious after-hours decline. Revenue came in at $81.6B, beating estimates by over $2B and growing 85% year-over-year, while earnings per share surged to $1.87 from $0.78 a year earlier. The data center segment, which powers AI infrastructure for cloud giants, hit $75.2B in revenue alone, a 92% year-over-year jump that underscores the relentless pace of AI spending.

The real headline, however, lay in forward guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance.. NVIDIA raised its Q2 revenue forecast to $91B, well above the consensus range of $84B to $86B. Most critically, management noted that this guidance excludes any contribution from China, meaning the figure assumes zero revenue from one of NVIDIA's historically largest markets. The company also announced an $80B share buybackA company repurchasing its own shares from the open market. and maintained its massive dividend, signaling confidence that growth can sustain even with geopolitical headwinds.

What makes this beat especially significant is the timing. Just three weeks before NVIDIA's earnings, every major hyperscaler, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon, had reported and raised their AI capex guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance.. Street bears had argued that those capex dollars wouldn't flow through to NVIDIA's books. Thursday night's guide proved otherwise. The data center backlog remains so robust that NVIDIA can guide higher while China remains offline, a dynamic that typically would be considered a tailwind risk.

Yet the market's muted reaction reflects a subtle shift in sentiment. The stock fell because the bar was already very high. At the current market cap of around $3.6 trillion, NVIDIA is now larger than the annual GDPGross Domestic Product — total US economic output. Released quarterly in three estimates: Advance (1 month after quarter), Preliminary, Final. of Japan, the UK, India, or France. Concentration in NVDA and four other mega-cap names now accounts for 40% of S&P 500 returns year-to-date, raising questions about breadth and sustainability. While the earnings were perfect, investors are now grappling with whether perfection is already priced in.