NVDA Q2 Guidance of $91B Excludes China Entirely, Implying 94% Revenue Growth

NVIDIA's May 21 earnings print arrived as a moment of vindication for believers in the AI infrastructure cycle. Revenue came in at $81.6 billion, crushing estimates of around $74B, while net income surged 135% year-over-year. Crucially, the company guided next quarter at $91 billion, a figure that already assumes zero contribution from China data center compute due to US export restrictions. That guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. excludes an entire geography that once mattered to the GPU story, yet still implies 94% revenue growth through Q2.

The core driver remains unchanged: hyperscalers are committing at scale. Amazon Web Services is deploying more than 1 million Blackwell and Rubin GPUs this year, translating to roughly $30-40 billion in chip purchases alone. Meta, Google, and Microsoft all raised capex outlooks in prior quarters, and NVIDIA's books now prove those pledges are real. Data center revenue hit $75.2 billion, doubling year-over-year, and the backlog for Blackwell remains deeper than expected.

Market structure matters here. NVIDIA now represents roughly 40% of S&P 500 returns year-to-date alongside four other Magnificent 7 stocks. Semiconductor peers like AMD benefited from broader sector strength, rallying 8% the same day, yet the concentration risk remains elevated. Institutional dark pool activity showed NVIDIA absorbed over $1 billion in single-day flows, signaling continued accumulation despite the stock sliding 2.5% after-hours.

The open question is whether this guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. floor will hold or surprise to the upside again. NVIDIA issued a record $80 billion buybackA company repurchasing its own shares from the open market. authorization, a signal of capital confidence. However, some critics note that even at roughly 20x forward PE on fiscal-year earnings, the bar for surprise is now extraordinarily high. The market is pricing in near-perfect execution and no supply-chain disruption.