Core CPI February 2026

Core CPI is the Federal Reserve's primary inflation metric because it excludes food and energy, categories prone to supply shocks that obscure underlying demand pressure. Since 2022, services inflation, particularly housing and labor-intensive sectors, has become the transmission mechanism for monetary policy tightening. February's print will signal whether post-pandemic disinflation momentum persists or whether sticky services costs are anchoring expectations higher. This reading feeds directly into Fed communications ahead of the March FOMC meeting; a hotter-than-expected services component could delay rate cuts or extend the terminal rate higher, while a cooler print might embolden dovish FOMC members. Markets will cross-reference this against wage data (average hourly earnings), shelter inflation trends, and the recent PCE print to assess the credibility of the Fed's 2 percent target. A significant miss could trigger repricing across fixed income and equities sensitive to rate duration.