Aluminum Forward Premiums at 2011 Highs Compress BA and LMT Margins 100 to 120 Basis Points

Headlines: Deal or no deal? Markets continue to eye US-Iran headlines ahead of the weekend Japan spent ¥11.7 trillion on foreign exchange interventions in the past month Japan chief cabinet secretary says extremely concerned about speculative FX moves Fed policymaker Schmid: My primary concern is inflation, which is too hot BOE governor Bailey: We have already tightened policy by taking rate cuts off the table German states see slight drop in inflation pressures in May French inflation continues to pick up in May, highest reading since February 2024 Inflation pressures continue to hold up in Spain, core prices nudge a little higher Italy inflation continues to push up in May, core prices nudge higher as well German unemployment falls unexpectedly in May, jobless rate down slightly as well German import prices climb further in April as US-Iran conflict continues to reverberate Markets: WTI crude down 1.7% to $87.40 DAX up 0.1% while CAC 40 up 0.7% on the day S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures up 0.1% US dollar lightly changed across the board US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.44% Gold higher by 0.8% to $4,530 As we get into the final stretch of the week, the US and Iran are still yet to formalise a deal and sign off on the expected memorandum of understanding. This is one that has been "imminent" since the past weekend already. Yet, here we are. It seems like we are close but come what may, this doesn't mean the end of the conflict - even if the deal is going to be labelled as such. Just a bit of background: How close are we actually to a US-Iran endgame? US and Iran know what the puzzle pieces are, but can they fit them all together? Still, markets remain hopeful and we're seeing a steadier mood in European morning trade today. Oil prices are down once again with WTI crude lower by 1.7% to $87.40. That comes as equities are continuing to nudge up, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1% following another round of gains in Wall Street yesterday. In Europe, we're se

Key takeaways WTI crude oil is on track for its worst monthly performance since April 2025, down 16% in May as easing US-Iran tensions reduce geopolitical risk premium. Technical signals remain bearish, as WTI trades below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages within a descending channel. Further downside risks remain in play toward the US$87.60 […] The post Chart Alert: WTI Crude Is Entrenched in a Minor Downtrend Below 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages appeared first on ActionForex.

Prior was +0.8% Durable goods orders ex-transport +1.1% vs +0.5% expected Prior ex-transport +0.9% Durable goods ex-defense +8.1% vs -0.3% prior Non-defense capital goods ex-air -1.1% vs +0.4% expected Prior +3.4% New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion or 7.9 percent to $346.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $23.1 billion or 21.5 percent to $130.9 billion. For background, the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, is one of the most closely watched gauges of U.S. manufacturing activity and business investment. Released about 18 working days after each reference month at 8:30 a.m. ET, it covers new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories of products meant to last three or more years, from aircraft, vehicles, and machinery to computers and appliances. A more comprehensive Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) release follows roughly a week later. Headline durable goods orders are notoriously volatile, swinging on lumpy aircraft and defense bookings, so analysts focus on two cleaner cuts: new orders excluding transportation, which strips out Boeing-driven swings, and nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, the so-called "core capex" series, which is treated as a real-time proxy for business investment intentions and feeds into GDP estimates. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines: Iran says continues US strikes are violations of the ceasefire Iran maintains position that all frozen assets must be released without conditions Gold continues to slide amid lack of US-Iran breakthrough and hawkish Fed risks Mild dollar selling expected going into month-end fix - Credit Agricole ECB policymaker Lane says second-round effects would persist even after shock reversal ECB policymaker Stournaras confirms a rate hike in June is the most likely development ECB April meeting account notes that upside risks to inflation had intensified Euro area economic sentiment picks back up a little in May but headwinds linger Markets: WTI crude up 3% to $91.37 Stocks move down, DAX and CAC 40 both lower by 0.5% on the day S&P 500 futures down 0.3%, Nasdaq futures down 0.7% US dollar holds steadier across the board US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 4.506% Gold down 1.7% to $4,381 It was a slower session but one that saw markets move with caution as US-Iran tensions linger. There's still no official word on a framework agreement or memorandum of understanding, with hopes of it being "imminent" now fading. Iran continues to maintain a firm stance on their red lines and it remains to be seen how both sides will want to progress from here. In the meantime, we're seeing strikes continue between Israel and Lebanon and also with the US hitting Iran targets for the second time in three days. cEaSeFiRe MuCh? Oil prices crept higher again as such with WTI crude up over 3% to $91.37 currently. Meanwhile, equities eased lower with major indices in Europe falling. The DAX and CAC 40 are both down by 0.5% on the day. US futures are also following suit with chipmakers lagging now. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq futures are down 0.7%. As the risk mood slides back, we're seeing bond yields push higher too. 10-year Treasury yields are back up by 2.5 bps to be above 4.50% again. Meanwhile, 30-year yields are also sitting near 2 bps higher to be near 5.03% on the d