NVDA Q1 Data Center Revenue Hits $75.2B with China Entirely Excluded from Q2 Guidance

NVIDIA's earnings clear a major hurdle that had haunted the AI boom. Three weeks ago, every hyperscaler raised guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. on AI capex. Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon all signaled bigger spending. The street's bear case was that capex announcements wouldn't translate into real chip orders or revenue. Last night's results demolished that narrative: $75.2B in data center revenue growing 92% year-on-year left no room for doubt.

The Q2 guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. of $91B is particularly striking because it excludes any contribution from China data center compute entirely. That means NVIDIA handed the street a number assuming zero revenue from the second-largest AI market. The implication is stark: US hyperscalers are ordering aggressively enough to sustain triple-digit growth even with China completely shut out. Blackwell demand is soaring, and there is no sign of a slowdown in orders.

The semiconductor complex is now in the grip of a sustained upgrade cycle. AMD rallied 8% on the news, and ARM broke out to new highs near $300. Broadcom, which supplies critical interconnect chips for data centers, also surged on the realization that capex intensity will remain elevated through 2026 and beyond. For equity traders, this validates the mega-cap rotation: NVDA and the 'Magnificent Seven' are not just momentumThe empirical fact that winners keep winning over the medium term. plays, but fundamental beneficiaries of a multi-year infrastructure build-out.

The risk that lingers is valuation. NVDA's market cap exceeds the annual GDPGross Domestic Product — total US economic output. Released quarterly in three estimates: Advance (1 month after quarter), Preliminary, Final. of Japan, the UK, and France combined. Any sign of capex deceleration, or a hiccup in Blackwell yields or customer absorption, could reverse this rally sharply. Investors are also watching China's domestic AI efforts and the possibility of government support for alternative chip designs. For now, though, the earnings have restored confidence that the AI capex supercycle is real and only in its early innings.