NVDA Q2 Guidance of $91B Clears Estimates by $5B-$7B, Excluding China

Nvidia's earnings release overnight delivered what many feared would not materialize: concrete evidence that the AI capex boom translating directly into GPU demand. After months of skepticism around whether hyperscaler spending hikes would flow through to actual chip consumption, the company's forward guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. of $91 billion for Q2 FY2026 erased doubts and signaled that the multi-year buildout is in its early innings, not peaking.

The numbers themselves speak to unabated appetite. Q1 data center revenue hit $75.2 billion, a 92 percent year-over-year surge, while overall revenue of $81.6 billion beat the street's estimate of $79.2 billion. More tellingly, the $91 billion Q2 guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. excludes China's restricted market entirely, a structural tailwind the company has voluntarily forgone due to geopolitical constraints. That means the street is being handed a number that assumes zero meaningful contribution from the world's second-largest economy.

The guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. beat carries implications across the semiconductor and AI infrastructure stack. AMD rallied 8 percent intraday on the signal that demand strength is broadening beyond Nvidia alone. Broadcom, which supplies interconnect and networking gear, and ARM, which licenses chip design, both extended gains. The capital intensity signal also supports thesis on data center operators like Amazon and Microsoft, which are publicly committing to higher infrastructure outlays across multiple quarters.

The skeptic's framing, however, remains live: the street had already priced in robust demand post the May guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. cycle from hyperscalers. Some traders questioned whether a $91 billion print, while impressive in absolute terms, was fully reflected in an already-elevated stock. Nvidia finished the day mixed after hours despite the beat, a sign that positioning and macro noise may matter as much as the earnings narrative itself.