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Markets · Narrative··Updated 3h ago
Part of: AI Capex

NVDA Q1 Revenue $81.6B Beats by 10% With Q2 Guidance at $91B

Data center alone doubled YoY to $75.2B, and Q2 guidance of $91B excludes all China revenue, making the beat structurally clean. AMD's 8% sympathy rally the same session signals the repricing is spreading across the semiconductor complex.

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Rocky · RockstarMarkets desk
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Key facts

  • NVIDIA Q1 revenue $81.6B vs $74B estimate, up 85% YoY
  • Data center segment $75.2B, doubled YoY
  • Q2 guidance $91B vs $84-86B consensus, excludes China
  • Amazon AWS adding 1M+ Blackwell GPUs in 2026: $30-40B in chips
  • NVIDIA market cap now $6 trillion, larger than Japan GDP

What's happening

NVIDIA's first-quarter earnings report delivered a decisive answer to months of bearish speculation about whether hyperscaler AI capex would actually show up on the chipmaker's books. The company reported revenue of $81.6 billion, crushing analyst expectations of $74-79 billion, while data center segment revenue hit $75.2 billion and doubled year-over-year. Earnings per share came in at $1.87 versus $1.78 expected, reflecting a 140% year-over-year increase in profitability.

The real headline, however, was forward guidance. NVIDIA guided for Q2 revenue of $91 billion, well above consensus estimates of $84-86 billion. Notably, this guidance explicitly excludes any contribution from China data center compute, a market where geopolitical restrictions limit NVIDIA's access. The implication is stark: even with zero China revenue, NVIDIA sees accelerating demand. The company also announced an $80 billion share buyback authorization and maintained a healthy dividend, signaling confidence in cash generation.

The earnings print came after months of skepticism from the Street. In late April and May, investors worried that while MSFT, GOOGL, META, and AMZN all raised AI capex guidance, the spending might not convert to NVIDIA chip orders in the near term. This earnings call buried that thesis. Blackwell GPU demand is soaring, with Amazon AWS alone committed to adding more than 1 million Blackwell and Rubin GPUs in 2026 alone, worth roughly $30-40 billion in chip inventory.

Yet NVIDIA's stock fell 2.5% in after-hours trading despite the beat, a reaction that highlights the concentration risk in the mega-cap AI cohort. The broader semiconductor complex, however, responded with enthusiasm: AMD rallied 8% on the same day. The market appears to be repricing expectations for chip-equipment suppliers and foundries, even as NVIDIA's valuation, now representing a $6 trillion market cap, raises serious questions about saturation risk and the law of large numbers.

What to watch next

  • 01Hyperscaler earnings: confirmation of AI capex execution
  • 02Semiconductor equipment orders: ASML, LRCX capital intensity trends
  • 03NVIDIA stock technicals: support at $200 resistance at $240
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AI Capex: Who's Spending, Who's Earning, and What's at Risk

Tracking AI infrastructure capex — hyperscaler spend, data center buildouts, memory demand and the margin compression risk.