US Approves NVIDIA H200 Sales to 10 Chinese Firms; Jensen Huang in Beijing Signals Chip Détente

The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced a quiet but material shift in US semiconductor export policy. The US government approved NVIDIA's H200 chip sales to 10 Chinese companies, reversing months of restrictive export controls that had throttled US semiconductor access to China. Jensen Huang's presence at the summit with the presidential delegation signals that the approval carries strategic weight beyond a single product.

This is not a wholesale lifting of restrictions. H200 chips are advanced but not the cutting-edge H100 or Blackwell architectures; the approval appears calibrated to allow US semiconductor leadership while preventing access to the absolute frontier. However, the optics matter: China interpreting the approval as a goodwill gesture from Trump ahead of broader trade negotiations could unlock higher AI capex spending by Chinese firms and reduce tariff risks for US semiconductor exporters.

NVDA's stock has reached a fresh all-time high, becoming the first publicly traded company to reach a $5.5 trillion market cap, though the bulk of the rally predates the summit news. The real impact will be in forward guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. from Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom on China revenue expectations. If the H200 approval signals a broader détente on chip exports, China could resume significant capex in AI infrastructure, supporting US semiconductor earnings through 2026.

Risks are substantial: any future escalation in US-China tensions could reverse the approval overnight, and hard-liners in Washington may argue the move is too generous. Moreover, the approval's timing during a high-stakes geopolitical summit raises questions about whether the policy will survive once Trump leaves Beijing.