Trump-Xi Summit Drives NVDA Higher; US Approves H200 Chip Sales to 10 Chinese Companies

President Trump's first state visit to China in nearly a decade has emerged as a turning point for AI semiconductor trade relations. Jensen Huang, NVIDIA CEO, was visibly part of Trump's delegation in Beijing, signaling direct engagement with China's tech sector leadership at the highest levels. Contemporaneously, the US government approved sales of advanced H200 chips to ten Chinese companies, marking a tangible relaxation of the export controls that have constrained US chipmakers' access to one of the world's largest markets. The coincidence of Huang's presence in Beijing and the formal approval of chip sales has been interpreted by markets as a coordinated signal of normalisation in US-China semiconductor trade.

NVDA shares have moved higher on the news, already trading near fresh record highs. The chipmaker had been operating under significant export restrictions that forced it to develop lower-performance alternatives for Chinese customers or cede market share entirely. The approval of H200 sales directly addresses this constraint. Simultaneously, Trump has signaled openness to increased US oil exports to China, which has geopolitical and energy-trade implications beyond semiconductors. The broader message from the summit is one of détente and deal-making, in contrast to the more adversarial stance of Trump's first term. For AI infrastructure investors, the thaw raises the possibility of larger TAM expansion for leading chipmakers and reduced risk of further export curbs.

However, the path to full normalisation remains unclear. The approval of ten company allocations is meaningful but modest; it does not represent an unrestricted market opening. US officials continue to monitor dual-use technology risks and have made clear that future approvals will remain conditional. Within China, there is also domestic political appetite to build indigenous semiconductor capability, which could eventually reduce reliance on US suppliers. The summit outcome appears to be a tactical easing, not a strategic reversal of decoupling.

Skeptics note that chip export approvals under Trump are often reversible and contingent on broader trade negotiations. A deterioration in US-China relations or a new tariff escalation could quickly reverse sentiment. Additionally, Chinese chipmakers and the government may use this window to accelerate alternative designs and domestic production, making future US competition harder even if exports are temporarily approved.