NVIDIA Nears $6 Trillion Market Value; 20% Rally in Seven Days on Sustained AI Capex

NVIDIA's stock surge accelerated on May 14, extending a 20% rally over the prior seven trading days as the company approaches a $6 trillion market value. The sustained buying reflects a broader market consensus that AI infrastructure investment will remain the dominant growth vector for technology and capital expenditure globally. CEOs across mega-cap tech have signaled that memory and compute constraints will persist, implying years of sustained capex not just for training but for inference workloads at scale.

The narrative encompasses not just NVIDIA but the entire AI supply chain: Broadcom's strength in AI networking, TSMC's foundry demand for advanced chips, and Micron's memory provisioning. Jensen Huang's visit to Beijing as part of Trump's delegation further buoyed the stock, suggesting potential for eased export restrictions on cutting-edge chips to China, a key revenue driver for NVIDIA. Cisco's pre-earnings strength also signalled that AI buildout is widening beyond just GPUs into switching, optics, and networking infrastructure, validating the breadth of the capex narrative.

At $6 trillion market cap, NVIDIA's valuation exceeds the GDP of all but a handful of countries and represents roughly 1.5% of the S&P 500 alone. The concentration risk is material: if AI capex disappoints, memory constraints ease faster than expected, or competition from AMD or custom chips accelerates, NVIDIA faces valuation pressure. However, near-term technicals remain strong; RSIRelative Strength Index - momentum oscillator on a 0-100 scale. readings on call flow and tape suggest bulls remain positioned for continuation.

Scepticism focuses on the sustainability of capex growth rates at current scale. At some point, return-on-investment thresholds for AI buildout must be met, risking a slowdown in orders. Additionally, NVIDIA's business model is highly vulnerable to export policy shifts; if the Trump administration further restricts chip sales to China or adversaries, revenue could compress sharply. Valuation expansion may also have peaked if Wall Street begins pricing in slower growth or competitive threats.