NVIDIA H200 Chip Sales to 10 Chinese Companies Approved; Jensen Huang in Beijing

Nvidia's recent approval to sell H200 chips to ten Chinese companies marks a significant inflection in US-China AI chip policy. For the past 18 months, the Biden administration had imposed strict export controls on advanced AI chips destined for China, aiming to preserve US technological dominance in AI. These restrictions had forced Nvidia to develop crippled versions (the A100-equivalent with lower memory bandwidth) or pull entirely from Chinese sales. The H200 is a newer, more powerful chip, and approval for sales to mainland buyers signals a policy recalibration.

Jensen Huang's presence at the Trump-Xi summit is not coincidental. Huang is one of the world's most influential technology leaders, with Nvidia supplying the vast majority of chips training large language models globally. His attendance at the state dinner and bilateral talks suggests that Nvidia's China exposure was explicitly discussed between Trump and Xi. If the Trump administration has decided to ease chip export restrictions as part of a broader trade deal with China, Nvidia would be the primary beneficiary.

For Nvidia investors, this is a material positive. China has been off-limits as a revenue source for advanced chips, forcing Nvidia to optimize for Western data center buildout alone. If even a portion of Chinese AI infrastructure spending is now accessible, it could add $5B-10B to Nvidia's addressable market. At Nvidia's current valuation north of $5.5 trillion, incremental China revenue is priced in at the margin, but the regulatory clarity removes tail risk of further restrictions.

The skeptical case warns that this approval may be a one-time carve-out, not a sustained policy shift. China could still be blocked from the next generation of chips, and domestic Chinese chipmakers (Huawei, etc.) are advancing rapidly. Moreover, any US-China geopolitical flare-up could reverse approvals overnight. The approval is also limited to H200; more advanced successors may remain blocked.