How to read Fed minutes (in 10 minutes)

Fed minutes drop three weeks after each FOMC meeting. They are the most-traded macro document in the world, and yet most retail traders skip them because the document is long, dense, and written in central-bank-speak. Here is the read in 10 minutes.

Start with the dot plot, only published at the quarterly meetings. Each dot is one member's projection of where they think the policy rate should be at year-end for the next three years and the long run. What matters is not the median dot — that is the headline number — but the dispersion. A median of 4.25 with most dots between 4.00 and 4.50 is a unified committee. A median of 4.25 with dots scattered from 3.50 to 5.00 is a divided one, and divided committees lead to surprises.

Second, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Look at the median forecast for unemployment, core PCE inflation, and GDP — and crucially, how each one has moved versus the previous SEP. The DELTA is what the market trades. If the median unemployment forecast moves up 30 basis points, the curve almost always bull-steepens.

Third, scan the language around "risks". The Fed will not tell you "we are about to cut". They will tell you the risks have shifted. Phrases like "more balanced", "tilted to the upside", or "approaching mandate" are the breadcrumbs. Memorise these patterns and the next move becomes obvious 15 seconds after the document lands.

The rest of the minutes — the policy discussion, the staff economic review, the open-market operations report — is interesting context but rarely market-moving on its own. Skip it on first read.

Tracking the move requires watching the curve, not just one tenor. RockstarMarkets' /ticker/^TNX page shows the 10-year live; the 2-year (^IRX is close but not identical) shows the front-end reaction.