30-Year Yields Hit 2007 Highs; NVDA H200 China Approval Offsets Bond Rout

Overnight action in Asia and Europe was dominated by the unwind of Friday's bond rout. Treasury yields, which spiked to multi-decade highs on May 15, are holding elevated through Asian trade Saturday morning. The 30-year yield breached 5.11%, a level not seen since May 2025 and approaching 2007 peaks, as investors dumped government bonds globally on inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. fears tied to crude oil supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. Brent crude held above $95 per barrel, fueling real-yield repricing and expectations that the Fed's rate-cut cycle will be delayed or abandoned. European equities are tracking lower on the macro headwind; the DAX, FTSE, and CAC 40 all sentiment-shifted negative as durationBond price sensitivity to interest rate changes. sellers fled government debt markets.

US index futures are reflecting the overnight momentumThe empirical fact that winners keep winning over the medium term. shift. S&P 500 futures (^GSPC) have fallen roughly 1% as of early Saturday, while Nasdaq Composite futures (^IXIC) are off 1.2% to 1.5% owing to heavy positioning in rate-sensitive mega-cap tech. The Russell 2000 (^RUT) is off a similar magnitude. Volatility indices have spiked as equity risk premiumThe excess expected return of equities over the risk-free rate. compressed and fixed-income convexityThe curvature of a bond's price-yield relationship. events forced mechanical selling. Equities on Friday posted their first significant retreat in weeks after the May rally driven by AI capex enthusiasm.

A bright spot: the US government approved NVIDIA's H200 chip exports to 10 Chinese companies on May 15, signaling a thaw in semiconductor export restrictions that have cost the chipmaker roughly 25% of global revenue. NVDA surged 4.4% on the news Friday, adding fuel to the chipmaker's 20% rally since May 5 ahead of earnings due May 21. The H200 approval suggests the Biden-Harris administration is willing to relax AI-chip trade barriers, a material positive for the capex supercycle thesis that drove the week's AI-accelerator IPOInitial Public Offering - a company's first public sale of stock. mania, including Cerebras (CRWD), which surged 68% intraday on May 15. AMD, AVGO, and ARM are all trading higher on the export thaw, though NVDA's China approval did not prevent broad tech selloff on the yield shock.

On the crypto front, the CLARITY Act advanced through the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 15, marking the first major US crypto legislation. XRP surged 6.5% to $1.51 on regulatory clarity expectations, while Bitcoin and Ethereum benefited from the bipartisan win. The legislation removes a long-standing regulatory overhang that had weighed on digital assets, though the rally will likely be muted today given the broader risk-off tiltEmotionally-impaired trading state where the trader makes decisions based on prior outcomes (anger, frustration, FOMO) rather than the trading plan. into the open.

The macro calendar appears light for today (May 16), with no major data releases flagged in the input batch. Investors will likely focus on digesting the inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. repricing and watching for any Fed messaging on the yield-spike shock. Earnings season continues; mega-cap earnings like NVDA (May 21 after close) will command attention as the market reckons with higher discount rates on future cash flows.

Cross-asset setup: the USD Index (DXYThe US Dollar Index — trade-weighted USD against EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF.) is likely bid on the global rate differential widening; the yen, franc, and pound may gain modestly as carryIncome earned from holding a position over time. unwinds. Gold is bid (GC=F) as real yields rose sharply, supporting haven demand. Oil (CL, BZ) is being watched as a key inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. indicator; any signs of supply stabilization could offer relief to the bond market.

Desk bias into the open: risk-off on the yield shock and growth repricing, with tech and high-durationBond price sensitivity to interest rate changes. names in the crosshairs. NVDA and the AI complex remain on watch for further downside if the China approval is seen as a one-off geopolitical trade rather than a structural shift. Bank stocks may underperform as deposit funding costs rise with rates. Crypto may consolidate post-CLARITY, awaiting Senate floor action. Levels to watch: 5,800 on the S&P 500, 18,000 on the Nasdaq Composite, and any further yield moves above 5.2% on the 30-year.