Iran War Shipping Crisis Drives Oil Price Persistence; Dollar Link to Crude at Record High, Import Prices Surge

Eleven weeks into the Iran conflict, the US dollar's correlation to oil prices has hit an all-time high, while US import and export prices jumped most since 2022 on fuel costs. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, forcing supertankers to seek alternative routes and pushing energy inflation into goods prices, lifting commodity currencies and pressuring rate-cut expectations.