TLT Support at 113.5 Tested as Fed Hike Odds Rise to 40% by December

The S&P 500 snapped a nine-day winning streak on Wednesday as rising Treasury yields and oil prices kept stocks under pressure.

May ISM services index 54.5 vs 53.8 expected US May ADP employment data +122K vs +117K expected Iran foreign minister: Contact with the US has not been severed but no progress made Iran targeted a US military ship in the Gulf of Oman - report Fed's Beige Book continues to see slight-to-moderate US growth Geopolitical news: China, Iran, NATO, and chip shortage US EIA weekly crude oil inventories -7974K vs -4007K expected Netanyahu: Lebanon has been taken over by Hezbollah Fed's Williams: I'm not that worried about persistent impacts on inflation so far US factory orders for April 4.8% versus 4.6% estimate May US S&P Global services PMI 50.7 vs 50.9 prelim Canada Q1 labour productivity falls 0.5% Markets: Gold down $41 to $4444 US 10-yuear yields up 3.4 bps to 4.49% WTI crude oil up $2.27 to $96.03 S&P 500 down 0.6% Nasdaq Comp down 0.8% USD leads, NZD lags The dollar moves were substantial on Wednesday in a worrisome sign of geopolitical risk as oil rose another 2.5%. The reports of an imminent deal between the US and Iran have dried up and there's a sense we are at a turning point in the war as patience wears thin. In particular focus is USD/JPY as it rose above 160.00 and into the range where Japan will be tempted to intervene. Elsewhere, oil prices chopped around and hit $97 before fading to $94.40 and then rising back to $96.17.The bond market has started to notice rising oil as yields ticked higher. Outside of Iran-driven news, the AI trade showed a bit less resilience than usual. There were some attempts to drag stock markets higher but it was Nvidia that struggled, falling 3.6% in a continuation of yesterday's reversal. We also saw a big swing lower in software stocks, where were a main catalyst in the May rally. The IGV software ETF was down 4.3%. Alphabet shares also fell to the lowest since April in a 0.8% decline in the fourth day of losses; Microsoft was down 3.2%. On the flipside, Meta was up 4.2% on upgrades. The meme-like rally in MRVL after Jensen

Crude oil surged on overnight US-Iran Gulf escalation, snapping the S&P 500’s nine-day winning streak, as strong US economic data broadly reinforced hawkish Federal Reserve rate expectations.

The powerful stock-market rally took a breather on Wednesday after a solid stretch of gains. As of the closing bell, the S&P 500 had wiped out its advance from earlier in the week, placing a lengthy weekly winning streak in jeopardy.

Comprehensive cross-platform coverage of the U.S. market close on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, and YouTube with Romaine Bostick, Alexis Christoforous, and Isabelle Lee. (Source: Bloomberg)

Recent headline news has been full of different geopolitical headlines: Two rockets have been launched from southern Lebanon toward Israel. Rubio says it's impossible to sign any agreement with Iran that does not include highly enriched uranium. Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledges that relations with China are more stable. Will see if China commits to larger Boeing purchases. Comments that Hezbollah leaders have a backed down from condition of Israeli which role as a prerequisite for accepting a cease-fire Iranian source said that the Iran's gratuitous threats are over and that any aggression will be met with regrettable response. Rubio told Congress that the US is waiting for Iran's final sign off on negotiations surrounding Tehran's nuclear program Talks between Israel and Lebanon is reported to make no serious progress toward peace. The comments are both positive and negative. Of course there is not a lot of trust put in any geopolitical comments given the tensions. In a another worry, automakers, retailers and consumer electronic firms are warning of chip shortages and price hikes could lead to significant and sustained near-term price increases for American households. US yields remain up on the day with the 10 year trading above and below the 4.50% level. The two year yield is trading at 4.088% after dipping below the 4.0% level recently. The US dollar remained higher with the largest gain versus the NZD NZD +1.06% CHF +0.66% AUD +0.65% CAD +0.41% GBP +0.35% EUR +0.30% JPY +0.08% US stocks are lower with the Dow -0.86% S&P -0.63% Nasdaq -0.97% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A seemingly endless appetite for buying US stock dips has propelled Vanguard Group’s S&P 500-tracking ETF past $1 trillion in assets, making it the first fund of its kind to reach a milestone once thought unimaginable for the ETF industry.