BTC-USD Weekly RSI at 37.84 as Spot ETFs Shed $2.26B in Two Weeks

Bitcoin's dramatic outflow streak signals a fundamental shift in institutional sentiment, marking the weakest two-week period for spot ETFs since late January. The magnitude of redemptions, combined with BTC's break below key support at $75,000, has triggered liquidations across leveraged positions on major exchanges including OKX, Binance, and Bybit, with cascading long squeezes rippling through the ecosystem.

BlackRock's IBIT, the flagship spot BTC ETFExchange-Traded Fund - a basket of securities trading like a single stock., now holds $61.1 billion in net assets against $64.8 billion in cumulative inflows, revealing roughly $3.7 billion in net drawdowns since inception. Over the same two-week window, spot ETH funds have extended outflows, hitting a 10-day bleeding streak with no $50M+ inflows for almost three weeks. Kalshi prediction markets are now pricing a $72,000 floor for BTC by month-end, while technical analysts point to the Bollinger Band compression, the tightest in history, as a harbinger of violent mean reversion.

The macro backdrop has inverted from crypto-friendly to risk-off. With Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22 and December rate-hike odds priced at 100%, the narrative that crypto was hedged against inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. and CBDC concerns has collapsed. Spot BTC ETFExchange-Traded Fund - a basket of securities trading like a single stock. inflows have historically reversed during periods of tighter monetary policy and rising real yields, a dynamic now playing out in real time.

Sceptics argue that ETFExchange-Traded Fund - a basket of securities trading like a single stock. flows alone do not signal capitulation; Santiment research contends that spot flows disproportionately reflect wealth transfer rather than conviction shifts. However, the combination of forced liquidations, technical breakdown, and the erosion of the inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy.-hedge thesis makes the near-term risk/reward asymmetric to the downside below $72,000.