NVDA Q2 Guidance Hits $91B With Zero China Revenue Priced In

NVIDIA's latest earnings and forward guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. have reignited the core AI capex narrative, but with a crucial twist: the company is now explicitly pricing out China entirely. The $91B Q2 guidance assumes zero mainland China data-center revenue, a material admission that geopolitical friction is real. Yet the sheer magnitude of the forward number, north of $90B, signals that US and allied hyperscaler demand remains white-hot, with Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon all raising their own AI capex forecasts recently.

The tension here is instructive. Bears worried that the capex surprise was priced in weeks ago, that margins would compress, that competition would intensify. Instead, Jensen Huang delivered a beat that felt inevitable but still shocked the street by its scale. The company guided through geopolitical headwind and still promised $91B next quarter. Hyperscalers are not retrenching; they are racing.

Concentration risk is now the ghost in the room. NVIDIA plus the four other mega-cap names (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN) now drive more than 40% of S&P 500 returns YTD. Equal-weighted indices lag. Breadth is deteriorating even as the mega-cap AI train rolls forward. This setup favors continued NVDA outperformance, but any disappointment, whether earnings, guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance., or geopolitical escalation, could trigger a violent deleveraging in the concentration trade.

Skeptics note that $91B guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. is so far ahead of consensus that it invites sandbagging accusations or that it reflects a peak demand moment that cannot repeat at that cadence. Others worry that China sanctions tightening could crimp supply chains or that US rivals (Intel, AMD) will gain share over the next 18 months. For now, though, NVIDIA's bet is that AI capex is structurally elevated and that they own the gateway.