NVDA Guides $91B Q2 2026 With Zero China Revenue Included

Nvidia just delivered the kind of quarterly results that would re-rate almost any other company. The chip giant posted $81.6B in record revenue, $75.2B of which came from data centers, and guided to $91B for the next quarter. For context, that guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. excludes China data center compute entirely, meaning it already bakes in zero contribution from the second-largest AI market on earth. Yet the Street still wrestled with the stock after hours, caught between euphoria and the creeping concern that greatness has become the baseline.

Three weeks prior, every hyperscaler had raised their AI capital expenditure: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon all signaled bigger spending budgets. The bear case circulated quickly: maybe Nvidia wouldn't capture the upside because the big cloud vendors were building internally or diversifying suppliers. Last night, Nvidia shut that thesis down cold. Guided $91B without breaking a sweat, and the data-center revenue trajectory showed no signs of deceleration.

What this means across the market is a validation of the entire AI capex cycle. Broadcom, AMD, and ARM all benefit from Nvidia's confidence; the broader semiconductor complex gains permission to rally on chip supply fears easing. Energy importers gain margin relief if the calculus shifts from recession risk to steady-state AI power demand. Defense and real estate also catch a bid because the sustained capex narrative reduces pressure on bond markets and rate expectations.

The debate now hinges on whether Nvidia's valuation at 33x forward earnings can hold at $200+ per share if growth stalls or if the company faces genuine competition from custom silicon. Skeptics point to inventory risks in fast-moving data center cycles and the firm's own filing on rising competitive threats. But for now, Nvidia's guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. has given the market a green light to believe in the AI capex story, at least through the summer.