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Part of: AI Capex

NVDA Q2 Guidance of $91B Tops Consensus by 7%, Excluding China Entirely

NVIDIA's beat-and-raise print, $81.6B in Q1 revenue at +85% YoY, is secondary to a Q2 guide that assumes zero China data center contribution and still clears the street by $5-7B. AWS alone is absorbing over 1 million Blackwell and Rubin GPUs this year, keeping hyperscaler capex on NVDA's books and lifting ^IXIC breadth

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Key facts

  • NVIDIA Q1 revenue: $81.6B, +85% YoY; beat $79.2B consensus
  • Q2 guidance: $91B vs. $84-86B consensus; excludes China data center
  • Data Center revenue: $75.2B, +92% YoY
  • EPS: $1.87 (+140% YoY) vs. $1.78 consensus
  • Amazon AWS adding 1M+ Blackwell/Rubin GPUs this year: $30-40B chip value

What's happening

NVIDIA's earnings landed hard on the bulls' side. The company posted $81.6B in Q1 revenue, up 85% year-over-year, beating consensus estimates and delivering an EPS of $1.87 against $1.78 expected. More importantly, management guided $91B for Q2, well above the street's $84-86B range. This wasn't a beat-and-drop scenario; it was a beat-and-raise, signaling that the AI capex cycle remains robust.

Data center revenue climbed $75.2B, up 92% year-over-year, the real engine of growth. Blackwell demand is accelerating faster than many expected, and the company's guidance for the next quarter already assumes zero contribution from China data center compute. In other words, NVIDIA handed Wall Street a number that strips out one of its largest geographies entirely and still expects growth to $91B. That's remarkable confidence in the core business outside China.

The hyperscaler AI buildout story remains intact. Three weeks prior to NVIDIA's print, MSFT, GOOGL, META, and AMZN had all raised their AI capex guidance. The bear case was that this capex wouldn't show up on NVIDIA's books quickly enough. NVIDIA's $91B guide answered that directly: the spending is hitting accelerators at speeds the market underestimated. AWS is adding over 1 million Blackwell and Rubin GPUs this year alone, roughly $30-40 billion in chip value.

Some traders are asking whether a 25x forward P/E on $NVDA is expensive at these growth rates. The counter: NVIDIA can triple from here and still be considered fair value if the AI cycle extends as long as many project. The concentration risk persists, though: NVDA alone now drives over 40% of the S&P 500's gains year-to-date.

What to watch next

  • 01Q2 earnings reaction in tech and semis: impact on AMD, AVGO multiples
  • 02Hyperscaler earnings in coming weeks: AWS, GCP, Azure capex confirms
  • 03China policy updates: any sanctions easing or restrictions
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