NVDA Q2 Guidance of $91B Beats Consensus, Yet Stock Slips 2.5% After-Hours
NVIDIA's Data Center revenue hit $75.2B, up 92% YoY, with H100 rental prices still rising 20% on three-year-old hardware. The post-earnings dip points to crowded positioning rather than fundamental doubt, pressuring ^IXIC breadth near all-time highs.
RKey facts
- NVIDIA Q1 revenue $81.6B, +85% YoY; EPS $1.87, +140% YoY
- Data Center revenue $75.2B, +92% YoY; Q2 guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. $91B vs $84-86B consensus
- Amazon adding 1M+ Blackwell/Rubin GPUs this year, ~$30-40B capex
- H100 rental prices up ~20% in 2026 despite 3-year-old hardware
- Stock fell 2.5% AH despite beat; sell-side uniformly bullish, retail flow heavy long
What's happening
NVIDIA delivered another blowout quarter that left investors wanting more. The chip giant reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion against expectations of around $79.2 billion, with earnings per share hitting $1.87 versus $1.78 consensus. Data Center revenue alone surged to $75.2 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year, underscoring relentless demand for Blackwell GPUs from hyperscalers. Amazon disclosed it will add more than 1 million Blackwell and Rubin GPUs this year, translating to roughly $30-40 billion in chip spending.
The forward guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance., however, provided the real window into management confidence. NVIDIA guided second-quarter revenue to $91 billion, beating consensus expectations of $84-86 billion by a substantial margin. Yet the stock dropped 2.5% in after-hours trading, a rare reaction to a print so decisively ahead of consensus. The disconnect points to a critical inflection: with sell-side analysis uniformly bullish, retail positioning skewed long, and options open interestThe total number of outstanding option or futures contracts. heavily favoring upside, investors may have priced in an even rosier scenario. A beat without a guidance beat can feel like disappointment when positioning is that crowded.
The company also announced an $80 billion new share buybackA company repurchasing its own shares from the open market. authorization and maintained dividend commitments, signaling cash generation remains robust despite elevated capex cycles among customers. NVIDIA disclosed that H100 rental prices have climbed roughly 20 percent even though the H100 launched in 2022 and is now three GPU generations old, implying strong supply-demand tension and pricing power for older silicon.
The structural debate around NVIDIA remains unresolved: can hyperscaler capex continue absorbing these higher funding costs indefinitely, or does a capex peak become inevitable? Market participants are watching margin sustainability closely. If gross margins compress as competition from AMD and emerging rivals intensifies, or if hyperscaler spending moderates, the richly-valued AI narrative could face pressure despite another quarter of exceptional growth.
What to watch next
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So much for Trump restraining Netanyahu. Maybe it was a ruse, maybe Bibi doesn't care what Trump wants. There are reports of explosions in Tehran, Tabriz and Isfahan, according to Iranian reports. Earlier, I noted there were reports from the US military of objects over Jordan so this isn't entirely surprising. It's not clear if these were Israeli missiles or planes but Israel said they were military targets. The question now is whether Iran responds or seeks peace. There is immediately some give-back in the green shoots in markets and S&P 500 futures are negative again. WTI crude is quickly up to $95.40 from $93.57 a few minutes ago. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
1h ago - ForexLiveThree signs of a better start to the week after Friday's rout
Friday was a major gut-check in markets but I don't think it was a disaster. I'm reminded of the old adage: Bull markets go up the escalator and correct on the elevator. That means that sharp, periodic corrections are a normal part of healthy bull markets. A steady bleed lower over many days would be much more concerning. Of course, what we've seen lately isn't just a healthy bull market but a borderline mania, particularly in places like South Korea and memory stocks. There is a sense that a bubble has formed and could pop at any point. I share the fear but picking tops and bottoms is a terrible idea. The trend is your friend and panicking after one measly selloff following an incredible month is simply poor trading. Moreover, today we're getting three good signs of stabilization: 1) US stock futures are now higher S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% after falling 0.6% at the open. If you followed the weekend news in the Middle East, it was poor but Trump came in and asked Israel not to retaliate because a deal is close. The market has rallied on the same 'deal is close' lies for 6 weeks but maybe this is actually it? Now that sentence was painful for me to write because there's been so much nonsense but it has worked over and over again. 2) Gold higher, USD lower The stock move is validated by turnarounds in gold and the US dollar as well. USD was strong on Friday in the rout and climbed further at the open. That move has been reversed and now the euro is up 12 pips and the Aussie has climbed to 0.7057 from a low of 0.7019. Here's a look at the gap lower and reversal in AUD/USD. 3) Bitcoin makes a stand The rout in bitcoin lately has been painful. It got ugly on Friday as it cracked $60K and the lows from the start of the Iran war. It's been a rough run lately and I don't see many reasons to like BTC. At the same time, I can't be the only one who sees it that way and right now it looks like there are no more sellers. I think we've largely passed the time when bitcoin was
1h ago - Yahoo FinanceAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Top 10 Stocks That Members of Congress Own3h ago
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Israel's N12 reports on today's call between Trump and Netanyahu. Trump asked Israel not to respond to the missile attack and to wait a few days to allow negotiations to continue. Netanyahu “more or less agreed" the report says. Trump must have a better sense of negotiations than what it looks like from the outside because it's looking grim. In any case, this has helped to lift stock futures as S&P 500 futures are now -0.2% from -0.6% at the open. WTI remains up $2.38 to $92.93. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
4h ago - Yahoo FinanceAmazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft Are All Racing to Design Their Own AI Chips. Here's What It Means for Nvidia.4h ago
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There was a time when the opinion of Britain Foreign Secretary mattered in Middle Eastern affairs but, unfortunately, that time has passed. I don't think Israel or Iran care what Britain thinks and I'd wager that Britain isn't interested in anything beyond a strongly-worded letter to any side. In any case, she said Iran and Israel must show restraint and de-escalate immediately. In terms of markets, S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% and Nasdaq futures are down 0.7%, adding to Friday's rout. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
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Tracking AI infrastructure capex — hyperscaler spend, data center buildouts, memory demand and the margin compression risk.