Trump-Xi Summit Approves H200 for China But Not FSD; Tech Concessions Hollow as Xi Holds Firm

The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing last week produced a carefully choreographed outcome on technology that pleased neither side fully. The US agreed to allow NVIDIA H200 GPU exports to China, a symbolic gesture that suggests some opening in the previously hardline AI chip export restrictions. However, Tesla FSD approval for China remained conspicuously absent from the official readout, and sources close to the talks suggest that Beijing is conditioning autonomous vehicle rollout on broader trade concessions that the Trump administration has not yet offered.

Analysts have described the tech concessions as "hollow" because the H200 approval, while symbolically important, does not substantially alter China's AI chip trajectory. NVIDIA's H100 and H200 remain subject to revised controls under the Commerce Department's May 2024 rule, and the volumes approved for China are marginal relative to domestic US demand. Conversely, Xi's refusal to unlock FSD for TSLA suggests that Beijing is using Tesla's ambitions as leverage in broader trade negotiations, signalling that no single carve-out will occur without reciprocal US concessions on tariffs, agricultural imports, or advanced manufacturing access.

The summit did produce one tangible outcome: a US-China agricultural trade agreement worth $17 billion in annual Chinese purchases of US farm goods through 2028. This suggests that Trump's negotiating priority remains mercantilist (balancing trade deficits) rather than technology containment. However, the divergence between the NVDA approval and the FSD freeze implies that Xi is willing to trade selectively on non-core strategic assets (like GPUs for inference workloads) while protecting crown jewels (autonomous vehicles, quantum computing, advanced semiconductors).

TSLA shares fell 3.5% after the summit announcement, reflecting market disappointment that FSD remained on the backburner. The tech concessions narrative is likely to remain volatile as trade talks continue throughout the year. For now, Xi's firmness on broader chip controls and FSD signals that the underlying geopolitical competition remains intact despite tactical trade agreements.