US Approves NVIDIA H200 Chip Exports to 10 Chinese Companies; 25% of Revenue at Stake

A surprise policy reversal at the highest levels of US-China trade relations created an unexpected win for NVIDIA. The US approved the export of advanced H200 chips to 10 Chinese companies, effectively reinstating sales access to a region that previously represented 25 percent of NVIDIA's annual revenue. This move represents a dramatic departure from the AI chip export restrictions that have been in place since 2022, undoing years of strategic decoupling in the semiconductor sector.

The approval came during President Trump's two-day summit in Beijing with Xi Jinping. While the official summary remained vague on specifics, market participants quickly priced in the implications: if China reacquires reliable access to cutting-edge NVIDIA silicon, the company's addressable market expands materially. NVDA jumped 4.4 percent on the announcement, with traders modeling a restoration of high-single-digit or low-double-digit revenue contribution from the region. Some commentators noted that the timing, selling advanced chips to a rival power while conducting broader trade negotiations, reflects an unusual pragmatism in geopolitical approach.

However, the market enthusiasm was quickly tempered by a countervailing signal. China's government issued a statement that it 'no longer wants US chips,' a message that some analysts interpreted as nationalist posturing or a negotiating tactic. The contradiction created confusion about whether the approval was permanent or a one-time concession. AMD and other US chipmakers also declined sharply on Friday, suggesting that traders feared the H200 approval might be an outlier rather than the start of a broad sanctions relief.

The chip sector's geopolitical volatility is creating trading risk. Jensen Huang, NVIDIA's CEO, was spotted in Beijing during the summit, signaling the company's deep engagement in the negotiations. Yet the conflicting signals from Beijing (approving purchases while publicly rejecting US chips) underscore the uncertainty baked into any US-China semiconductor settlement. Whether this approval signals a durable shift toward managed competition or remains a tactical concession tied to broader Trump-Xi discussions remains unclear.