Global Bond Selloff Sends 30-Year Yield to 2007 Highs as Inflation Fears Mount

The US inflation pulse stole the spotlight yesterday, as the June CPI report came in softer than anticipated. In case you missed it: US June CPI 3.5% vs 3.8% expected Despite what the headlines might suggest, the drop in June owes much to a marked fall in gasoline prices. Month-on-month CPI inflation fell by 0.4%, which was the biggest monthly drop since May 2020. However, the US-Iran conflict has now restarted and oil prices have already climbed by roughly 14% already since the turn of the month in July. Adding to that, it's tough to say if gasoline prices will continue to reflect more of this deflationary trend when the refining market remains ever so tight. The only other good news is that core prices did cool as well, with not much evidence of a major boost from the World Cup. And tariffs inflation spillover continues to be at a minimum for the most part. But if higher energy prices are going to stick around for longer, that will eventually translate to other segments of the economy and indirectly bolster price pressures down the road. So, there is that to keep in mind and be wary about. For now though, markets can at least take a bit of a breather. However, I reckon that is all that the US inflation data will be able to afford traders and investors. US stocks bounced back overnight with tech shares rebounding and futures are holding up again today. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% with Nasdaq futures up 0.7%. But with Treasury yields slowly climbing back, it might be only a matter of time before the tide turns on risk sentiment. 10-year yields in the US are nudging back up to near 4.60% today. The post-CPI drop saw a fall to 4.525%. Meanwhile, the dollar is also down slightly following the inflation numbers yesterday. That being said, it is not to say that the declines are anything too stark. USD/JPY continues to hang above the 162.00 level with EUR/USD settling around 1.1420-40, still keeping within the range of the past two weeks. So as long as the US-Iran conflic

Nikkei rises but gains checked ahead of ASML earnings, Kospi surges China Q2 GDP growth cools to 4.3%, weakest pace in three and a half years US forces hit dozens of Iranian military sites near Strait of Hormuz China June Retail sales +1.0% y/y (expected -0.1%) and Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected 4.6%) China Q2 GDP 0.9% q/q (expected 0.9%) and 4.3% y/y (expected 4.5%) New home prices in China fell for a fourth straight year in June China House prices June 2026 -3.3% y/y (prior -3.5%) Oil escalation - Iran hit US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan Korea Exchange halted trading twice as Kospi and Kosdaq futures rocketed. SK Hynix +12% PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7910 (vs. estimate at 6.7965) Gulf states race to pipeline oil around Hormuz, Goldman Sachs finds. Could insulate most Gulf oil exports. New Zealand retail data, June 2026: +1.3% y/y (vs. prior +3.3%) Japan - Reuters Tankan shows split business mood as Middle East risks linger Here's the key test for next Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike: Whether price rises stick Trump confirms US held talks with Iran, urged Tehran to reach a deal ICYMI - China targets 60tn yuan (~US$8.84tn) retail sales by 2030 under new consumption plan Heads up for Lucid funded traders, the talk about Lucid bankruptcy is a completely different firm Recapping a crude Tuesday: Oil prices climb to one-month high as Middle East conflict escalates Private survey inventory shows a headline crude oil draw smaller than expected Summary: Trump told Fox News strikes on Iran will continue until he deems it enough, confirmed the US held talks with Tehran and urged a deal, while flagging energy targets are being saved for later in the campaign Axios reported Trump convened a Situation Room meeting on Tuesday to weigh a larger new wave of strikes on Iran, with Trump having already floated hitting more sensitive sites including bridges and infrastructure Iran struck US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan overnight in retaliation Centcom

Key Highlights GBP/USD started a fresh increase above 1.3300 and 1.3350. A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.3370 on the 4-hour chart. Gold struggled near $4,120 and corrected some gains. WTI Crude Oil prices gained pace for a move above $80.00. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound remained in a positive […] The post GBP/USD Climbs with Confidence as Buyers Regain Control appeared first on ActionForex.

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Axios is out with an interesting report, and the timing of it is also notable. Trump yesterday created some more bluster in the Iran war but he might still be angling behind the scenes for a peace deal. Axios reports that in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Thursday, he told him Israel "should start redeploying its forces out of Syria and urged him to do the same in Lebanon." The source for the report was "US and Israeli officials" but I have to wonder if the US side wanted to leak it to send a signal to Iranian negotiators that it's still trying to adhere to the MOU, which required Israel withdraw from Lebanon. The report said: "They don't want you there. You should redeploy," Trump told Netanyahu, according to the U.S. official, who added that the same is true about Lebanon. The report highlights that it could be politicallly tough for Netanyahu to withdraw from any areas ahead of an election in three months. WTI crude oil was last up $1.01 to $79.15. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.