US Approves Nvidia H200 Chip Exports to 10 Chinese Companies: NVDA Up on Geopolitical Thaw

In a stark geopolitical reversal, the US administration approved Nvidia's request to export H200 chips, its most advanced AI processors, to a slate of 10 Chinese companies on May 15. The move came during President Trump's high-profile summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing and represents a dramatic departure from the Biden-era export controls that had effectively shut off China's access to cutting-edge American semiconductor technology. NVDA stock surged 4.4% on the announcement, reflecting trader relief that a significant revenue headwind has been lifted. China represented roughly 25% of Nvidia's revenue before controls were imposed, a figure that could swing sharply higher if the export ban truly lifts across the board.

The timing and optics are revealing: Trump's Beijing visit was billed as a grand strategic reset aimed at stabilizing US-China ties and resolving the Iran war via Chinese diplomatic channels. Export approval for advanced chips fit neatly into a broader narrative of normalized commerce and reduced technology decoupling. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, spotted eating noodles on a Beijing sidewalk during the visit, has been a visible symbol of Silicon Valley's interest in China. The H200, designed for generative AI inference and large language model deployment, is among the most sought-after chips globally; allowing sales to China removes an artificial scarcity and pricing power that Nvidia had leveraged during the export-control era.

The semiconductor sector immediately grasped the implications. AMD, which has also faced export restrictions, saw its stock decline 3.3% as traders assessed which chips might face Chinese demand cannibalization. Broadcom (AVGO) and other chip suppliers with exposure to Chinese customers similarly faced reassessment. The geopolitical thaw, however, comes with embedded risks. One analyst noted the absurdity of "approving our most advanced AI chips to China while bombing Iran," highlighting the contradictions in Trump's dealmaking approach. Taiwan, the epicenter of chip manufacturing for these advanced processors, remains an unspoken flashpoint in the Xi-Trump talks, with some advisers flagging that Taiwan could become a bargaining chip if US-China relations further normalize.

Skulls beneath the surface: if the H200 exports accelerate Chinese AI capabilities, it could accelerate competitive challenges to Western AI dominance. Additionally, the reversal signals that Trump's tech policy is transactional and geopolitically driven rather than principled, creating uncertainty for US chipmakers about the durability of any policy shift. Investors should monitor whether the approval extends to other banned chips (the A100, H100) and whether Congress, particularly on defense committees, mounts opposition to further relaxation.