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US Approves H200 Chip Exports to 10 Chinese Companies; NVDA Rallies 4.4% on Revenue Lift

The US lifted export restrictions on NVIDIA H200 chips, approving sales to 10 Chinese companies and restoring a revenue stream worth approximately 25% of NVDA's total sales. The approval sent NVDA up 4.4% on May 14, though geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran remain unresolved.

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Key facts

  • US approved H200 exports to 10 Chinese companies effective May 14-15
  • China represents approximately 25% of NVDA's total annual revenue
  • NVDA rallied 4.4% on approval news; stock up 20% since May 5
  • Trump-Xi summit in Beijing yielded trade normalization signals
  • Jensen Huang cites 1000x energy demand growth need for AI compute cycles

What's happening

In a striking reversal of sanctions policy, the US Commerce Department approved NVIDIA to export its H200 AI chips to a select group of 10 Chinese companies, removing a significant constraint on the chip giant's revenue. China represents roughly 25% of NVIDIA's total sales; this approval reinstates a major revenue stream that had been cut off due to prior export controls designed to limit Beijing's access to advanced semiconductors.

The decision coincided with President Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, suggesting the export approval was part of a broader trade normalization effort. Trump characterized the US-China relationship as 'very strong' and said Xi offered assistance in resolving the Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The timing is noteworthy: approving advanced chip sales to China while tensions with Iran remain elevated underscores the administration's pivot toward strategic engagement with Beijing over enforcement of prior technology restrictions.

NVDA rallied 4.4% on the news, though the stock's 20% gain since May 5 (adding roughly $1 trillion of market cap in days) had already priced in expectations of normalization. CEO Jensen Huang's remarks about humanity's energy needs growing 1000-fold due to AI compute demands received fresh investor attention, with clean energy and nuclear power names also rallying on the implication of sustained semiconductor capex cycles.

Critics note the geopolitical contradiction: selling advanced AI chips to China while maintaining sanctions on Iran and supporting Taiwan creates a fragmented technology architecture. Some analysts question whether the 25% revenue restoration is sustainable if US-China relations deteriorate again, making the rally vulnerable to headline risk. Additionally, rivals like AMD and AVGO stand to benefit from diversified supply chains if Chinese customers hedge geopolitical risk by broadening vendor relationships.

What to watch next

  • 01NVDA earnings next Wednesday (May 21): forward guidance on China revenue
  • 02US-China trade talks on agricultural purchases: ongoing
  • 03Taiwan policy clarifications from White House: monitor
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