US approves Nvidia H200 exports to China; NVDA jumps on $25B revenue opportunity

In a sharp reversal of Trump-era tech decoupling policy, the US approved sales of Nvidia's most advanced AI chips to a select set of 10 Chinese companies, a move that signals a tactical shift in US-China relations under the new administration. The approval came during Trump's two-day Beijing summit with President Xi Jinping, suggesting technology openness may be part of broader trade and geopolitical negotiations.

Nvidia's stock jumped 4.4 percent on the news as traders reassessed the company's China exposure. For years, export restrictions have forced Nvidia to sell lower-performance chips or nothing at all to Chinese buyers; China historically represented 25 percent of Nvidia's total revenue. If advanced chip sales resume meaningfully, the financial upside could be substantial. However, the approval covers only 10 named companies and does not represent a blanket lifting of restrictions.

The geopolitical subtext is stark: approving advanced chip sales to China while maintaining military tension with Iran and negotiating Taiwan risks suggests the administration is compartmentalizing technology competition. Semiconductor peers including AMD also rose on hopes that export relief could spread to their products. However, the precedent remains fragile; future administrations could reverse this at any time, and Congress retains authority over export controls.

Critics point out that approved sales may be token or symbolic to support Trump's summit optics; actual orders from Chinese companies may languish given uncertainty over future policy. Additionally, the move complicates US alliance messaging with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, each of which fears losing competitive advantage to China in AI chips.