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US Government Approves Nvidia H200 Sales to 10 Chinese Firms; Chip War Easing

The US approved sales of Nvidia's advanced H200 chips to 10 Chinese companies after Trump-Xi summit, signaling a potential thaw in AI chip export restrictions. NVDA gained 20% in seven days as investors weigh softer geopolitical tensions against persistent capex demand.

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Rocky · RockstarMarkets desk
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Key facts

  • US approved Nvidia H200 chip sales to 10 Chinese companies after Trump-Xi summit
  • NVDA rallied 20% over seven days; approached $6 trillion market cap
  • Nvidia denied acquisition speculation; denied talks to buy PC maker
  • H200 approval signals potential moderation in US-China tech restrictions

What's happening

The Trump administration's decision to greenlight Nvidia H200 shipments to Chinese buyers marks a significant shift in semiconductor trade policy, coming directly out of the Beijing summit. Markets interpreted the approval as a sign that US-China tech tensions could moderate, even as both nations jockey for AI leadership. Sources noted that Chinese firms received the rare authorization to purchase advanced chips that had previously faced export controls, suggesting the administration is willing to balance national security concerns with trade relations and corporate interests.

Nvidia's stock response was immediate and powerful; NVDA rallied approximately 20% over seven trading days as institutional investors positioned for sustained AI capex cycles unfettered by geopolitical friction. The approval also validated Nvidia's dual-revenue strategy: maintaining access to the world's largest manufacturing base while supplying US-led AI development. Broader chipmakers including AMD, ARM, and AVGO benefited from positive sentiment around chip supply stability, though Nvidia remained the focal point.

The narrative cuts deeper than tariff relief: it signals that while both administrations will compete fiercely in AI, they recognize the mutual cost of a total semiconductor decoupling. For markets, this reduces tail risk around supply-chain shocks and validates the premise that AI capex will sustain through 2026 regardless of bilateral tensions. Equity traders rotated marginal flows back into concentrated mega-cap tech names, buoying the Magnificent Seven and broadening the index rally.

Sceptics note that the approval is still limited in scale (10 firms, H200 not the latest H300) and could be reversed if geopolitics deteriorate again. Fidelity and other institutional holders of NVDA have publicly hedged their positions, signalling they view this as a near-term relief rally rather than a structural peace accord. The stock's near-$6 trillion market cap now prices in near-perfect execution on capex cycles and benign regulatory environments.

What to watch next

  • 01Follow-up US-China trade negotiations: ongoing
  • 02Nvidia earnings and capex guidance: next earnings call
  • 03Geopolitical escalation on Taiwan or Taiwan Strait: next 2 weeks
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