Trump Meets Xi in Beijing; NVDA, Tech Leaders Hope Trade Thaw Unlocks China Market Access

The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing marked the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders in nine years and the first state visit by a sitting US president to China in even longer. The symbolism was amplified by Trump's choice of delegation: Jensen Huang of NVIDIA, Elon Musk of Tesla, Tim Cook of Apple, Larry Fink of BlackRock, Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, and other titans of technology and finance. The optics signal a potential reset in US-China relations after years of escalating tariffs, export controls on advanced semiconductors, and geopolitical brinkmanship that has constrained both tech and energy sectors.

For the semiconductor industry, the summit's most tangible early outcome was a US government approval for NVIDIA to sell its H200 chips to 10 Chinese companies, a modest but symbolically important relaxation of the blanket restrictions that have been in place. Chinese buyers have been locked out of American AI accelerators since 2022, forcing them to develop inferior domestic alternatives or rely on older generation chips. The approval suggests that the Trump administration may be willing to negotiate targeted carve-outs for commercial players, even as it maintains broader national security guardrails. NVDA shares rallied further, with traders interpreting the optic of Huang in Beijing as a positive signal for future negotiations.

China's perspective on the talks remains cautious. Xi stated that "common interests outweigh difficulties," signaling willingness to cooperate on trade and energy, but Chinese equities took profits after a tech-driven rally, suggesting local investors are not yet convinced a durable thaw is underway. Energy negotiations are also on the table; the two sides discussed potential breakthroughs on Iranian gas sales and oil, which could ease global energy inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. if realized. The semiconductor and rare earth minerals sectors are expected to dominate detailed negotiations, with the US pushing China to buy more American semiconductors and China pressing for eased export licenses.

The risk to this optimistic framing is substantial. Trump's campaign rhetoric on tariffs and his historic skepticism of China have not abated, and any perception of unfair trade terms could trigger a renewed escalation. Negotiators from both sides will spend weeks on details. Markets are pricing in a modest de-risking of US-China tech decoupling, but geopolitical fragmentation remains the base case.