NVDA H200 Chips Approved for 10 Chinese Companies as Trump-Xi Summit Signals Trade Thaw

The optics of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang seated at a state banquet alongside Trump and Xi Jinping sent a powerful market signal on May 14: the US-China AI trade war may be entering a thaw phase. Following the summit, the US government approved NVIDIA H200 chip exports to 10 Chinese companies, a concrete policy reversal that contradicts months of hardline export control rhetoric. The market interpreted this as a potential return to more normalized US-China trade dynamics, lifting NVIDIA shares 20% in just seven days.

The approval carries deep strategic implications. The H200 is Nvidia's latest-generation AI inference accelerator, critical for deploying large language models at scale. Approval for 10 Chinese companies signals the Biden-Trump administration may be compartmentalizing China policy: restricting the most advanced chips for training (H100/H200 for model development) while allowing derivatives for inference, a compromise that lets both sides claim victory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed the talks as potential for "wholesome discussions" on AI safety and competitiveness rather than zero-sum competition.

The broader delegation assembled in Beijing amplified the message. CEOs from Tesla, Apple, Bank of America, Boeing, General Dynamics and other mega-cap firms attended alongside Trump. Market participants read this as a reset of tech-sector relationships with Beijing, reducing the tail-risk premium on US multinational earnings. Tesla shares rose on chatter around Chinese EV deals; the stock's momentumThe empirical fact that winners keep winning over the medium term. score hit 58 on strong tape and data flow. Musk's proximity to Trump and Xi created a narrative that Tesla could unlock bilateral trade breakthroughs.

However, sceptics note structural tensions persist. China's own chipmakers (HiSilicon, Inspur, Sugon) are advancing rapidly and will eventually replace Nvidia. The H200 approval may reflect desperation to avoid decoupling rather than confidence in sustained market access. Additionally, if Iran-war oil prices stay elevated and inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. remains sticky, trade optimism could evaporate within weeks, leaving traders who front-ran the summit exposed to mean reversion.