Bitcoin ETFs Post Largest Single-Day Outflow in 105 Days as Inflation Fears Rise

Bitcoin and the broader crypto complex faced renewed macro headwinds on May 13 as spot Bitcoin ETFExchange-Traded Fund - a basket of securities trading like a single stock. outflows hit their largest single-day level in over three months. The $635M outflow coincided with a resurgence in US inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. data, which rekindled bets that the Federal Reserve will hold rates higher for longer. Spot BTC retreated to $79.8K, well off recent highs above $82K, signalling renewed risk-off sentiment in risk assets despite the typically bullish setup of the Trump-Xi summit.

The selloff reflects a tactical disconnect: while institutional adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value continues (evidenced by recent Blackrock transfers to Coinbase Prime), macro conditions have shifted. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Nils Kashkari reiterated that inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. remains too elevated, hardening the case for patient policy. This directly compresses risk appetite for non-yielding assets like crypto. Additionally, the Iran war has lifted oil prices, exacerbating inflation expectations and forcing central banks globally to defend currency pegs, draining forex reserves across Asia and tightening liquidity.

On-chain metrics show mixed signals. The Fear and Greed Index sat at 34 (fear territory), yet retail positioning has flipped bullish following recent rallies. Large traders have increased short positions, betting on further downside. Funding rates remain positive, suggesting leverage is still being added by bulls, but the order-book structure indicates heavy overhead resistance stacked above $85K. A break below $79K would challenge critical support around the $76K level, where the 50-day moving averageAverage price over a defined period; smooths noise to show trend. provides a last stand for bulls.

The debate hinges on whether inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. is transitory or structural. If energy prices stabilize and CPI moderates in coming months, the Fed pivot narrative re-emerges and BTC resumes its bull case. If crude remains elevated and wage pressures persist, the rate-hold scenario deepens and crypto underperforms. The Senate markup of the CLARITY Act, which cleared today and could ease regulatory burden on digital assets, offers a micro-catalyst for sentiment, but macro gravity remains the dominant driver.