Trump China Summit Sparks CEO Optimism and Tech Rally

The Trump-Xi Jinping summit scheduled for this week has triggered a sharp repricing of China-related equities and a rally in shares of tech companies seen as having upside from more permissive AI export rules. Jensen Huang's inclusion in Trump's Air Force One delegation sent NVIDIA shares higher, with traders interpreting the move as a signal that the administration may ease restrictions on advanced chip sales to China. Chinese AI model developers and H200 supply beneficiaries surged in early trading. The delegation also includes Tim Cook of Apple, Elon Musk of Tesla, Larry Fink of BlackRock, and Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, alongside Kelly Ortberg of Boeing. The breadth of representation signals an intent to move beyond narrow trade fights toward broader commercial engagement. Morgan Stanley, anticipating blockbuster earnings, raised its S&P 500 target to 8,300 on the back of strong corporate results and a still-resilient US economy. However, the summit carries tail risks. Trump arrives with a weaker negotiating hand than he held before the Iran war; oil prices are elevated and emerging markets are under stress, constraining his room to pivot aggressively on tariffs or China policy. Xi Jinping, by contrast, appears emboldened; China's profit outlook is improving on rising exports and early signs of reflation. Some observers worry about geopolitical escalation if talks stall. The CEOs' presence frames the meeting as a commercial forum rather than a confrontation, yet skeptics note that symbolic gestures have limited traction when structural US-China competition in AI and semiconductors remains intense. A deal on chip sales would be bullish for NVIDIA and Intel supply chains, but regulatory hurdles remain high.