Bitcoin holders debate safe-haven status amid dollar rally

Bitcoin's traditional safe-haven narrative is fracturing as the US dollar rallies on the back of elevated energy prices and higher-for-longer interest rate expectations. Ray Dalio, the legendary Bridgewater hedge fund founder, publicly stated that BTC has failed as a safe-haven asset, citing volatility and persistent correlation with tech stocks as evidence. Gold, he argued, remains the superior store of value. The critique cuts at a key pillar of the bull case: that crypto would decouple from risk assets and protect portfolios during crises.

Technical data reinforces near-term softness. BTC spot and perpetual CVD (Cumulative DeltaHow much an option's price changes per $1 move in the underlying. Volume) are both red, with spot CVD at negative 26.31M and falling. Longs are still paying to hold at a funding rate of plus 0.0043%, indicating crowded positioning. BTC rejected a double-top formation at a daily EMA 200, and traders are waiting for structure confirmation before adding significant new positions. A breach below USD 79,100 would test a support zone where substantial liquidity has built.

US spot BTC ETFExchange-Traded Fund - a basket of securities trading like a single stock. inflows remain constructive at USD 27.29M yesterday, suggesting institutional patience despite near-term weakness. However, the inflow pace has moderated significantly from the euphoric early months of 2026. Some analysts argue the volatility during the Iran war shock proves Dalio's point: BTC moved in tandem with risk assets rather than providing uncorrelated protection. This narrative could persist if macro volatility spikes and BTC once again rallies and then crashes alongside equities.

The counterargument is that BTC is still early in a structural adoption cycle and that near-term technical noise should not invalidate the longer-term thesis. MEXC's announcement of a USD 500M Guardian Fund, expanding from USD 100M with a dual-reserve structure of USDT for liquidity and BTC for long-term value, suggests institutional conviction remains intact. If inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. eventually peaks and the Fed pivots to cuts, BTC could re-establish safe-haven credentials. For now, the debate is unresolved and momentumThe empirical fact that winners keep winning over the medium term. dependent.