China confirms Trump summit as AI and memory boom overshadows trade war fears

China's confirmation of Trump's state visit this week marked a diplomatic turning point after the summit was delayed by the Iran war. The visit is framed as a fresh negotiation opportunity on trade and strategic issues, though both sides remain far apart on tariffs and technology decoupling. However, what's interesting is that equity markets are shrugging off trade-war anxiety in favor of a rally in Asian semiconductor and AI-related names.

South Korea's KOSPI has surged on the memory-chip supercycle narrative, with JPMorgan raising its target to 10,000. India's Nifty lagged (down 1-1.2%) due to oil and Iran concerns, but emerging-market equities overall hit record highs on AI chip optimism. China's Zhaojin Mining, meanwhile, announced plans to acquire gold mines in Africa and Central Asia, a sign of capital rotation out of domestic equities and into global hard assets as energy costs rise.

The rotation is complex. While US tech mega-caps like Alphabet and Nvidia remain dominant, the outperformance is broadening to include regional champions in South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. Goldman Sachs said the yuan is 20% undervalued and raised currency forecasts, expecting capital to flow into Chinese assets if trade tensions ease. Circle, a crypto-infrastructure firm, raised $222 million from BlackRock and Apollo, signaling institutional appetite for digital-asset infrastructure.

The risk is that if Trump presses Xi hard on tech transfer and military-linked companies, the diplomatic thaw could sour quickly. China has not signaled willingness to open its markets further or to pressure Iran to restart oil flows, suggesting limits to cooperation. But for now, the market is pricing in a scenario where trade tension stays manageable and AI-driven capex cycles benefit both US and Asian chipmakers.