Warsh's first FOMC meeting held rates at 4.50% while traders now price 100% odds of a September 2026 hike. Live chart, dot-plot breakdown, USDJPY 158 reaction, BoJ 90% hike odds, TLT levels, key catalysts tracked.

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Narrative·Jun 16

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Narrative·Jun 15

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Narrative·Jun 16

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Narrative·Jun 15

NVDA $50B bond oversubscribed: SOXX RSI 78, the setup pros watch

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Narrative·Jun 16

HYG at 85c: private-credit defaults 3-yr high on $300B index

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Narrative·Jun 16

Fed holds 4.50%: TLT -12 bps, September hike at 40%, decoded

Warsh's first Fed meeting held rates at 4.50% on June 15, sending TLT down 12 bps as Citadel flagged 40% September hike odds. Covers Goldman Dec cut forecast, CPI June 25 catalyst, and USD index reaction.

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Narrative·Jun 15

HYG Near 85: $40B debt surge, buyback cycle risk, the desk read

US corporates priced over $40 billion in new debt on June 15, the largest single-day volume in months, compressing HYG spreads toward historical tights near 85. JPM & GS underwriting pull-through, buyback mechanics, and spread blowout risk decoded.

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