USD
FedUS Dollar
Regime
Carry funder when Fed pauses; carry beneficiary when Fed hikes
How to read COT
Net long USD against G10 signals broad-dollar conviction; sustained shorts often precede DXY rallies as positioning corrects
FX positioning tracker
Read the CFTC Commitment of Traders report
Every Friday the CFTC publishes futures positioning data for G10 currencies. We break down how to read it, which positions matter, and the regime context for each major currency.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report is the only free, public, regulator-published positioning dataset in FX. It tells you what speculators are doing in CME FX futures — not the whole FX market, but a meaningful slice of the leverage stack. Used correctly, COT identifies crowded trades before they unwind. Used poorly, it produces false signals at every weekly print.
TL;DR
COT data is released Friday 15:30 ET reflecting Tuesday positioning. Focus on non-commercial (large speculator) net contracts. Extreme net positions (top/bottom 25% of 52-week distribution) mark crowded trades. JPY shorts above 100K are the textbook carry-trade tail-risk signal. Pair COT with rate-spread momentum and chart levels — never use as a standalone trigger.
G10 currencies in COT context
Each currency plays a structural role in global FX flow. The cards below capture that long-term regime context. Live weekly net positioning will appear here once our CFTC ingestion pipeline goes live; in the meantime, the CFTC site is the authoritative source.
EUR
ECBEuro
Regime
Reserve diversifier; positioning tracks ECB-Fed spread
How to read COT
Most-liquid non-USD position. Net long euros above 100K contracts historically signals crowded positioning vulnerable to reversal
JPY
BoJJapanese Yen
Regime
Primary funding currency; crowded shorts are tail-risk signal
How to read COT
Net short JPY above 100K contracts marks crowded carry-trade positioning. The August 2024 unwind was preceded by extreme short positioning
GBP
BoEBritish Pound
Regime
Medium-yield; positioning sensitive to gilt market dynamics
How to read COT
Net positioning shifts on BoE meetings and UK CPI surprises. Asymmetric — political risk shocks can reverse positions in days
AUD
RBAustraliaAustralian Dollar
Regime
Carry recipient + China-demand proxy; high-beta to risk
How to read COT
Net long AUD reflects China-bullish bets and carry positioning. Iron ore drops typically lead AUD long liquidations within weeks
New Zealand Dollar
Regime
Highest-beta G10 to risk; thinnest CFTC market
How to read COT
Smallest G10 by COT volume. Net longs above 30K contracts have historically marked positioning extremes preceding sharp reversals
CAD
BoCCanadian Dollar
Regime
Oil-linked; positioning tracks WTI crude and BoC-Fed spread
How to read COT
CAD COT moves with crude oil cycles. Net longs build on oil rallies and unwind on inventory builds or OPEC dovish surprises
CHF
SNBSwiss Franc
Regime
Safe-haven; SNB intervention is recurring backdrop
How to read COT
Net positioning frequently resets via SNB intervention. Extreme shorts often signal SNB readiness to act against rapid CHF strength
What's in the report
How the CFTC structures positioning data
The COT report breaks open interest into three categories: commercials (corporates hedging real-economy exposure), large non-commercials (hedge funds, CTAs, leveraged speculators), and small speculators (retail accounts under reportable thresholds). For FX trading purposes, the non-commercial net position is the cleanest sentiment read — it captures discretionary leveraged flow.
Two report variants exist: the Legacy report (the classic format going back decades) and the Disaggregated report (more granular category breakdown). For FX, the Legacy report is the standard reference. The Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) report adds asset manager and dealer breakouts useful for institutional positioning analysis.
Release calendar
Every Friday at 15:30 ET
The CFTC releases COT data every Friday at 15:30 ET (19:30 UTC most of the year, 20:30 UTC during US daylight saving). The report reflects positioning as of the prior Tuesday close — a 3-day lag. Government shutdowns or holidays can delay or pause publication; the CFTC website is always the authoritative source.
Position changes week-over-week often matter more than absolute levels. A large swing in non-commercial net JPY (e.g. +30K contracts shifting toward neutrality) can signal regime change even when the absolute position is far from extreme.
People also ask
What is the CFTC Commitment of Traders report?
The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a weekly publication by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It breaks down open interest in futures markets — including FX futures — by trader category (commercials, large speculators, small speculators). The report is published every Friday at 15:30 ET, reflecting positioning as of the prior Tuesday close.
How do I read COT data for FX?
Focus on the Non-Commercial (large speculator) net position — total long contracts minus short contracts. Persistent positive net positions signal bullish positioning; negative net positions signal bearish. Extreme net positions (above 75th percentile of the 52-week distribution) often mark crowded trades vulnerable to reversal.
When is the COT report released?
Every Friday at 15:30 ET (19:30 UTC most of the year, 20:30 UTC during US daylight saving). The report reflects positioning as of Tuesday's close — so it's a 3-day lag, not real-time. Government shutdowns can delay or pause publication; the CFTC's website is the authoritative source.
What does 'crowded positioning' mean?
When non-commercial net positioning is unusually large vs the 52-week distribution. Crowded longs (above 75th percentile) often precede mean-reversion or sharp unwinds when catalysts hit. Crowded shorts can fuel short squeezes. COT alone doesn't time tops or bottoms, but it identifies trade asymmetry.
How is COT different from FX flow data?
COT covers only US-listed FX futures (CME). Spot FX flow data from BIS surveys or interbank platforms covers the much larger spot market. COT is freely available with a fixed weekly schedule; spot flow data is mostly proprietary. COT is best-used as a directional sentiment gauge, not as comprehensive positioning data.
Why does JPY positioning matter for global markets?
The yen is the world's primary funding currency. Net short JPY positioning (built when carry trades expand) signals leverage in the global carry complex. Sharp unwinds (e.g. August 2024) tend to coincide with equity sell-offs as carry-funded risk assets liquidate simultaneously.
What is a smart way to use COT in FX trading?
Combine COT positioning with rate-differential momentum and technical levels. Extreme COT positioning at a chart breakout or rate-spread inflection often produces high-conviction setups. Avoid using COT as a single-factor signal — it works best as one of three or four converging signals.