US-Iran Peace Deal Reshapes Energy: Oil Falls, Equities Climb, Hormuz Set to Reopen Friday

The most significant geopolitical headline in months hit markets overnight: the US and Iran reached an interim peace agreement, halting a months-long conflict that had paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz and sent shock waves through global trade and commodity markets. President Trump announced the Strait will reopen on Friday upon deal signing. Pakistan's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb credited his country's "critical role" in mediating the accord, while UK, France, Germany and Italy jointly signaled readiness to lift relevant Iran sanctions in response to verifiable nuclear concessions. This marks a hard pivot away from the geopolitical risk premium that has dominated markets since war erupted.\n\nEnergy markets repriced sharply lower overnight. Oil futures fell as traders absorbed the reality of Hormuz reopening and restored supply flows; Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy International noted the market has adapted to disruption and prices could fall to pre-war levels if the waterway "truly" reopens. A three-month-trapped LNG tanker appeared headed toward Hormuz as the deal took hold. Copper surged on the agreement, as easing fears over global growth and the prospect of unblocked raw-material shipments out of the Gulf stoked demand optimism. Grain futures in Chicago declined on hopes that reopened Hormuz access will ease crop input scarcity and food inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. headwinds.\n\nUS equity futures climbed on the peace news as risk sentiment thawed overnight. Treasuries rallied sharply across the curve as investors trimmed Fed rate-hike expectations; the bond market priced in lower terminal rates after the geopolitical shock that had supported higher yields receded. The dollar weakened as carryIncome earned from holding a position over time.-trade positioning reset and Asia's best performer, the Indian rupee, extended gains on renewed risk appetite. South Korea's top FX official confirmed close US cooperation on won weakness, a signal the region's currency volatility is now stabilizing as macro risk premia compress.\n\nCross-asset reaction: Japanese stocks are set to gain at the open after months of war headwinds eased. The yen carry tradeBorrowing in low-yielding yen to buy higher-yielding assets globally. has revived despite BOJ intervention risks and a potential rate hike this week; speculators have pushed yen short bets to a nine-year high, betting the peace deal and lower US yield expectations will keep carry attractive. Vanguard's Qian Wang noted while significant uncertainty remains around deal sustainability, the accord could reduce inflation expectations and risk premia broadly. India's rupee and equity markets are poised to hold momentumThe empirical fact that winners keep winning over the medium term. as global risk appetite normalizes.\n\nIn single-name moves: Zhipu, China's AI model maker, surged 48% after JPMorgan raised its price target, while JPM downgraded rival MiniMax. Singapore is launching a gold-clearing system this year with JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank participating, signaling a structural shift in bullion-market infrastructure. JoongAng Group, South Korea's media conglomerate, filed for court rehabilitation after a broadcaster loan default tied to expensive sports broadcasting rights; this is a domestic credit story unrelated to the Iran deal but signals stress in leveraged media buyouts. Meanwhile BC.GAME's token BC broke above $0.01, up 23% in 24 hours, riding broader risk-on sentiment.\n\nThe desk's read into Monday US open: geopolitical risk premiums are unraveling, energy supply chains are un-kinked, and rate expectations are compressing lower as the macro backdrop shifts from war/inflation to peace/growth normalization. Traders are trimming hedge positions and re-risking into energy, emerging markets, and yield-sensitive equities. The Strait reopening Friday is the next catalyst; any delay or detail doubt could spark a quick reversal. For now, momentum favors lower oil, higher equity multiples, and weaker USD into the week. Watch for Asia's morning close reaction and European open confirmation.