NVDA Clears $91B Q2 Guide Amid 30Y Treasury Surge to 2007 Highs

Overnight, Asia and Europe digested a twin shock: Nvidia's blockbuster earnings and guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. raise set against a bond rout driven by Iran war risk. The Nikkei and ASX firmed on AI demand confirmation, but euro-zone weakness (PMI contractions in France and Germany, the fastest since 2020) and a surge in oil prices near $100/barrel on Strait of Hormuz closure fears shifted sentiment sharply. The 30-year US Treasury now sits at 2007 levels, the highest in 19 years, as markets price 37% odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026. That repricing has crushed durationBond price sensitivity to interest rate changes.: BTC dropped 5.7% below $77K, ETH fell 10.2%, and a $3B BlackRock crypto ETFExchange-Traded Fund - a basket of securities trading like a single stock. outflow compounded the move. S&P 500 futures are off 0.3%, with Nasdaq 100 futures under pressure from long-duration tech names despite NVDA's beat.

Nvidia reported Q1 revenue of $81.6B (up 85% YoY, beating by $7.6B) and data center revenue of $75.2B (up 92% YoY). Q2 guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. of $91B excludes China data center revenue entirely, yet still beats consensus by $5B-7B, signaling that the US hyperscaler capex cycle (Amazon alone is committing to 1M plus Blackwell GPUs worth $30-40B) is intact despite geopolitical headwinds. The company authorized an $80B buybackA company repurchasing its own shares from the open market.. NVDA slipped 2.5% after-hours, however, reflecting a market already positioned for the beat and grappling with whether valuations can expand further when the 10-year yield sits at 4.55%. AMD surged 8% on sympathy demand, while AVGO and ARM rallied on broad semiconductor validation.

Today's macro calendar is light on direct releases, but the Iran war premium remains the dominant price driver. Oil is the immediate transmission mechanism; any sustained Strait of Hormuz blockage risks 20% of global crude flows and a recession scenario that rivals 2008, according to energy strategists. Fed speakers have acknowledged the stagflation risk, but no policy decision is scheduled today. Instead, the market is pricing whether the sticky services inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. baked into oil, combined with tight labor (jobless claims at 209,000), forces the Fed to raise rather than cut.

Earnings season is winding; Nvidia's beat was the headline event, but Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and other AI-exposed names are under pressure from the same durationBond price sensitivity to interest rate changes. rotation that is hitting crypto and long-duration growth. No major earnings are due before the open today, but guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. outlooks and forward capex commentary will command desk focus as hyperscalers navigate margin compression amid rising cost of capital.

Cross-asset: The dollar is strengthening (DX-Y.NYB higher) as rate differentials widen, squeezing EURUSD and other EM pairs. Gold is firm (flight-to-quality bid), but growth-sensitive copper is selling off despite its "AI stock" trading pattern. Credit spreads are widening on the Iran war and recession fears, and mortgage rates have climbed to their highest since August, signaling real estate pressure ahead. The bond-yield shock is the dominant cross-asset trigger.

Desk bias: The rally's underlying breadth is already fragile. NVDA's beat is AI demand validation, not a signal for multiple expansion in a world where the 10-year yield is 4.55%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 is unchanged since the Iran war broke out, meaning all YTD gains rest on mega-cap tech concentration. A break below 5,400 on S&P 500 futures would confirm that bond volatility is contagious to equities. Watch for any shift in Fed rhetoric on rate cuts vs. hikes, and monitor oil holding above $100 as the key threshold for sustained inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. risk.