NVDA Beats $91B Guide but Slips 2.5% as Iran War Reprices Rates to 2007 Highs

NVIDIA delivered a clean earnings beat tonight with Q1 revenue of $81.6B, up 85% year-over-year, and EPS of $1.87 beating consensus estimates. Data Center revenue doubled year-over-year to $75.2B, validating hyperscaler demand for Blackwell GPUs; Q2 guidanceCompany-issued forecasts of future financial performance. of $91B topped consensus by roughly $6B and implies 94% growth. Yet the stock slipped 2.5% in after-hours trading, signaling the market was already heavily long ahead of print and that upside had been priced into pre-announcement dark pool positioning. AMD surged 8% in sympathy, while ARM rallied 15%, confirming breadth in the AI infrastructure complex. The muted reaction to near-perfect execution underscores a structural shift: the bar for NVIDIA has outrun even dominant demand metrics, as traders now wrestle with multiple expansion limits rather than demand risk.

The broader equity sell-off reflects a macro repricing that overshadowed NVIDIA's beat. US 30-year Treasury yields rocketed to 2007 highs following Iran tensions that have pushed crude oil near $100 per barrel. Markets are now pricing 37% odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026, a seismic shift from prior rate-cut consensus. Jobless claims came in at 209,000, underpinning sticky inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. concerns. The combination of oil-driven cost pressures and rising discount rates is squeezing terminal values across high-durationBond price sensitivity to interest rate changes. growth equities; ^IXIC breadth is under pressure, with crypto taking the brunt of duration repricing: BTC fell 5.7% below $77K and ETH-USD dropped 10.2% overnight. A $3B BlackRock ETFExchange-Traded Fund - a basket of securities trading like a single stock. outflow compounded the risk-off move. S&P 500 futures are off 0.3%.

Energy supply shocks are bleeding into FX and macro flows. Euro-zone inflationThe rate at which prices rise across an economy. has accelerated to its fastest pace since 2023 as oil costs ripple across the continent; Germany and France private-sector activity contracted sharply, with the IMF already cutting French growth forecasts. EURUSD is under pressure and DX-Y.NYB (USD Index) is climbing. Yen traders are bracing for intervention risk as Monday holidays across London to New York reduce market liquidity, elevating USDJPY volatility into the Asia open.

The SpaceX IPOInitial Public Offering - a company's first public sale of stock. filing disclosed 18,712 BTC held in corporate treasury, valued at roughly $1.4B and averaging $35K per coin. The S-1 reveals SPCX targeting a $75B initial valuation with a $2T+ implied market cap, framing the listing as a high-conviction macro and crypto adoption bet rather than a clean growth story. The filing marks an institutional watershed for Bitcoin holdings, lifting COIN-correlated sentiment despite tonight's broader crypto selloff.

Asia desks will trade the convergence of three macro currents at the open: sticky stagflation from Iran supply shocks translating into yield re-repricing and growth compression; tech multiple compression despite clean NVIDIA execution; and nascent USD strength against EURUSD and emerging-market currency pairs. Watch for any overnight ceasefire signals on Iran-US talks to reset oil volatility; if Hormuz risk persists, energy names and defensive equities may decouple further from durationBond price sensitivity to interest rate changes.-sensitive growth stocks heading into the weekend.